Related papers: Bayesian Consistency with the Supremum Metric
Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…
Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…
A simple strategy for improving LLM accuracy, especially in math and reasoning problems, is to sample multiple responses and submit the answer most consistently reached. In this paper we leverage Bayesian prior information to save on…
The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…
A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…
We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution…
This paper deals with a new Bayesian approach to the standard one-sample $z$- and $t$- tests. More specifically, let $x_1,\ldots,x_n$ be an independent random sample from a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$. The…
We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…
Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…
In this article, we investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian multiple testing procedures under general dependent setup, when the sample size and the number of hypotheses both tend to infinity. Specifically, we investigate strong…
We study subspace concentration of dual curvature measures of convex bodies $K$ satisfying $\gamma (-K)\subseteq K$ for some $\gamma \in (0,1]$. We present upper bounds on the subspace concentration depending on $\gamma$, which, in…
We show how to compute lower bounds for the supremum Bayes error if the class-conditional distributions must satisfy moment constraints, where the supremum is with respect to the unknown class-conditional distributions. Our approach makes…
Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…
Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…
In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…
Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to…
We introduce a methodology for robust Bayesian estimation with robust divergence (e.g., density power divergence or {\gamma}-divergence), indexed by a single tuning parameter. It is well known that the posterior density induced by robust…
During the past decade, shrinkage priors have received much attention in Bayesian analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper establishes the posterior consistency for high-dimensional linear regression with a class of shrinkage priors,…
We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…