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Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-05 Jin-Liang Wang

Simulating and predicting the water level/stage in river systems is essential for flood warnings, hydraulic operations, and flood mitigations. Physics-based detailed hydrological and hydraulic computational tools, such as HEC-RAS, MIKE, and…

El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 A. Bunde , J. Ludescher , H. J. Schellnhuber

Recent work has provided ample evidence that global climate dynamics at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years can be severely affected by the episodic occurrence of both, internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-11-15 Tim Kittel , Catrin Ciemer , Nastaran Lotfi , Thomas Peron , Francisco Rodrigues , Jürgen Kurths , Reik V. Donner

Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26 deg S, 66…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 N. Marwan , M. H. Trauth , M. Vuille , J. Kurths

The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-09-01 Paul R. Pukite

Groundwater resources are one of the most relevant elements in the water cycle, therefore developing models to accurately predict them is a pivotal task in the sustainable resource management framework. Deep Learning (DL) models have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Matteo Salis , Abdourrahmane M. Atto , Stefano Ferraris , Rosa Meo

Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-12 Xinyang Wang , Joanna Slawinska , Dimitrios Giannakis

Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-23 Devabrat Sharma , Shruti Tandon , Gaurav Chopra , R. I. Sujith , B. N. Goswami

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are known to be powerful methods for many hard problems (e.g. image classification, speech recognition or time series prediction). However, these models tend to produce black-box results and are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Marco Landt-Hayen , Peer Kröger , Martin Claus , Willi Rath

Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-13 Kyle J. C. Hall , Maria J. Molina , Emily F. Wisinski , Gerald A. Meehl , Antonietta Capotondi

Downscaling is necessary to generate high-resolution observation data to validate the climate model forecast or monitor rainfall at the micro-regional level operationally. Dynamical and statistical downscaling models are often used to get…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-28 Bipin Kumar , Rajib Chattopadhyay , Manmeet Singh , Niraj Chaudhari , Karthik Kodari , Amit Barve

The emergence of oscillations in models of the El-Ni\~no effect is of utmost relevance. Here we investigate a coupled nonlinear delay differential system modeling theEl-Ni\~no/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which arises through…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-05-24 Chandrakala Meena , Shweta Kumari , Akansha Sharma , Sudeshna Sinha

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-24 Guanghao Ran , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-21 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , N. Chen , J. S. Wettlaufer

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Sijie He , Xinyan Li , Timothy DelSole , Pradeep Ravikumar , Arindam Banerjee

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Ayush Khot , Xihaier Luo , Ai Kagawa , Shinjae Yoo

Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-07 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial…