Related papers: Regression to the Mean of Extreme Geomagnetic Stor…
Solar storms perturb Earth's magnetosphere, triggering geomagnetic storms that threaten space-based systems and infrastructure. Despite advances in spaceborne and ground-based observations, the causal chain driving…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…
This research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)…
Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather…
Solar eruptions generally refer to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Both are important sources of space weather. Solar flares cause sudden change in the ionization level in the ionosphere. CMEs cause solar energetic particle (SEP)…
Certain forms of solar wind transients contain significant enhancements of dynamic pressure and may effectively drive magnetosphere dynamics, including substorms and storms. An integral element of such driving is the generation of a wide…
Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunication, satellite network disruptions, power grid…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…
Many questions have to be answered before understanding the relationship between the emerging magnetic flux through the solar surface and the extreme geoeffective events. Which threshold determines the onset of the eruption? What is the…
Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…
A geomagnetic storm is the result of sustained interaction between solar wind with a southward magnetic field and the magnetosphere. To investigate the influence of various solar wind parameters on the intensity of major geomagnetic storm,…
The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…
Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…