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Rate change calculations in the literature involve deterministic methods that measure the change in premium for a given policy. The definition of rate change as a statistical parameter is proposed to address the stochastic nature of the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-26 Roland R. Ramsahai

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

Quantile is an important risk measure quantifying the stochastic system random behaviors. This paper studies a pooled quantile estimator, which is the sample quantile of detailed simulation outputs after directly pooling independent sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Qiong Zhang , Bo Wang , Wei Xie

Stochastic processes play a fundamental role in physics, mathematics, engineering and finance. One potential application of quantum computation is to better approximate properties of stochastic processes. For example, quantum algorithms for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-03-14 Adam Bouland , Aditi Dandapani , Anupam Prakash

We describe a measurement device principle based on discrete iterations of Bayesian updating of system state probability distributions. Although purely classical by nature, these measurements are accompanied with a progressive collapse of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Michel Bauer , Denis Bernard , Tristan Benoist

We consider the inference problem for parameters in stochastic differential equation models from discrete time observations (e.g. experimental or simulation data). Specifically, we study the case where one does not have access to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-10 Sebastian Krumscheid

The general notion of a stochastic ordering is that one probability distribution is smaller than a second one if the second attaches more probability to higher values than the first. Motivated by recent work on barycentric maps on spaces of…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-14 Fumio Hiai , Jimmie Lawson , Yongdo Lim

This paper is concerned with a simulation study for a stochastic production network model, where the capacities of machines may change randomly. We introduce performance measures motivated by risk measures from finance leading to a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Simone Göttlich , Stephan Knapp

In this paper we provide a novel family of stochastic orders that generalizes second order stochastic dominance, which we call the $\alpha,[a,b]$-concave stochastic orders. These stochastic orders are generated by a novel set of "very"…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Bar Light , Andres Perlroth

This paper discusses a methodology for determining a functional representation of a random process from a collection of scattered pointwise samples. The present work specifically focuses onto random quantities lying in a high dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-01-03 Lionel Mathelin

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ivan Ustyuzhaninov , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Carl Henrik Ek , Neill D. F. Campbell

A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-19 Michael E. Mura

We derive an efficient stochastic algorithm for inverse problems that present an unknown linear forcing term and a set of nonlinear parameters to be recovered. It is assumed that the data is noisy and that the linear part of the problem is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Darko Volkov

Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam H. Monahan

If an experimentalist observes a sequence of emitted quantum states via either projective or positive-operator-valued measurements, the outcomes form a time series. Individual time series are realizations of a stochastic process over the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-06-14 A. Venegas-Li , J. P. Crutchfield

This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-04-08 Sovan Mitra

Uncertainties are abundant in complex systems. Mathematical models for these systems thus contain random effects or noises. The models are often in the form of stochastic differential equations, with some parameters to be determined by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jiarui Yang , Jinqiao Duan

A stochastic algorithm is proposed, finding some elements from the set of intrinsic $p$-mean(s) associated to a probability measure $\nu$ on a compact Riemannian manifold and to $p\in[1,\infty)$. It is fed sequentially with independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Marc Arnaudon , Laurent Miclo

In this paper we introduce a general stochastic representation for an important class of processes with resetting. It allows to describe any stochastic process intermittently terminated and restarted from a predefined random or non-random…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-11 Marcin Magdziarz , Kacper Taźbierski

This paper proposes an algorithm to calculate the maximal probability of unsafety with respect to trajectories of a stochastic process and a hazard set. The unsafe probability estimation problem is cast as a primal-dual pair of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Jared Miller , Matteo Tacchi , Didier Henrion , Mario Sznaier