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We study Markov processes on weighted directed hypergraphs where the state of at most one vertex can change at a time. Our setting is general enough to include simplicial epidemic processes, processes on multilayered networks or even the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Dániel Keliger , Balázs Ráth

We study the evolution of a general class of stochastic processes (containing, e.g. SIS and SIR models) on large random networks, focusing on a particular general class of random graph models. To approximate the expected dynamics of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Pierfrancesco Dionigi , Dániel Keliger

The epidemic spreading has been studied for years by applying the mean-field approach in both homogeneous case, where each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate, and heterogeneous case, where the infection rates…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-09-06 Bo Qu , Huijuan Wang

We study Markov population processes on large graphs, with the local state transition rates of a single vertex being linear function of its neighborhood. A simple way to approximate such processes is by a system of ODEs called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Dániel Keliger

In this paper we use comparison theorems from classical ODE theory in order to rigorously show that the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (NIMFA) model provides an upper estimate on the exact stochastic process. The proof of the…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2017-04-07 Péter L. Simon , István Z. Kiss

We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in Achterberg and Sensi (2023) to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-18 Massimo A. Achterberg , Mattia Sensi , Sara Sottile

Many real-world phenomena can be modelled as dynamical processes on networks, a prominent example being the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Mean-field approximations are a widely used tool to analyse such dynamical processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-25 Jonathan A. Ward , Gábor Timár , Péter L. Simon

We propose a new approximation framework that unifies and generalizes a number of existing mean-field approximation methods for the SIS epidemic model on complex networks. We derive the framework, which we call the Universal Mean-Field…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-12-06 Karel Devriendt , Piet Van Mieghem

The statement of the mean field approximation theorem in the mean field theory of Markov processes particularly targets the behaviour of population processes with an unbounded number of agents. However, in most real-world engineering…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-11 Mahmoud Talebi , Jan Friso Groote , Jean-Paul Linnartz

This paper studies a general class of stochastic population processes in which agents interact with one another over a network. Agents update their behaviors in a random and decentralized manner according to a policy that depends only on…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Anirudh Sridhar , Soummya Kar

Our $N$-intertwined model (now called NIMFA) for virus spread in any network with $N$ nodes is extended to a full heterogeneous setting. The metastable steady-state nodal infection probabilities are specified in terms of a generalized…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-14 Piet Van Mieghem , Jasmina Omic

We extend the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (NIMFA) for the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) epidemiological process to time-varying networks. Processes on time-varying networks are often analysed under the assumption that…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-04-11 Robin Persoons , Mattia Sensi , Bastian Prasse , Piet Van Mieghem

We consider a system of $N$ particles whose interactions are characterized by a (weighted) graph $G^N$. Each particle is a node of the graph with an internal state. The state changes according to Markovian dynamics that depend on the states…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Sebastian Allmeier , Nicolas Gast

Interacting particles on graphs are routinely used to study magnetic behaviour in physics, disease spread in epidemiology, and opinion dynamics in social sciences. The literature on mean-field approximations of such systems for large graphs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-07-15 Kai Cui , Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh , Heinz Koeppl

We study the asymptotic behaviour of Markov processes on large weighted Erdos-Renyi graphs where the transition rates of the vertices are only influenced by the state of their neighbours and the corresponding weight on the edges. We find…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Daniel Keliger , Illes Horvath

We typically interact in groups, not just in pairs. For this reason, it has recently been proposed that the spread of information, opinion or disease should be modelled over a hypergraph rather than a standard graph. The use of hyperedges…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-08-13 Desmond J. Higham , Henry-Louis de Kergorlay

The mean field approximation to the Ising model is a canonical variational tool that is used for analysis and inference in Ising models. We provide a simple and optimal bound for the KL error of the mean field approximation for Ising models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-22 Vishesh Jain , Frederic Koehler , Elchanan Mossel

Mean field approximation is a popular method to study the behaviour of stochastic models composed of a large number of interacting objects. When the objects are asynchronous, the mean field approximation of a population model can be…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-07-24 Nicolas Gast , Diego Latella , Mieke Massink

We use the pair heterogeneous mean-field (PHMF) approximation for an asynchronous version of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model to estimate the epidemic thresholds on complex quenched networks. Our results indicate an improvement…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-19 D. S. M. Alencar , T. F. A. Alves , F. W. S. Lima , R. S. Ferreira , G. A. Alves , A. Macedo-Filho

Recent advances in experimental techniques enable the simultaneous recording of activity from thousands of neurons in the brain, presenting both an opportunity and a challenge: to build meaningful, scalable models of large neural…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-08-05 Luca Di Carlo , Francesca Mignacco , Christopher W. Lynn , William Bialek
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