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We propose a variational method to solve all three estimation problems for nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems: prediction, filtering, and smoothing. Our new approach is based upon a proper choice of cost function, termed the {\it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Gregory L. Eyink

Mixed-effect models are very popular for analyzing data with a hierarchical structure, e.g. repeated observations within subjects in a longitudinal design, patients nested within centers in a multicenter design. However, recently, due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh , Magne Thoresen

In this work, we study the task of distributed optimization over a network of learners in which each learner possesses a convex cost function, a set of affine equality constraints, and a set of convex inequality constraints. We propose a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Zaid J. Towfic , Ali H. Sayed

Mathematical models of natural and man-made systems often have many adjustable parameters that must be estimated from multiple, potentially conflicting datasets. Rather than reporting a single best-fit parameter vector, it is often more…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Jeffrey D. Varner

This paper investigates convex quadratic optimization problems involving $n$ indicator variables, each associated with a continuous variable, particularly focusing on scenarios where the matrix $Q$ defining the quadratic term is positive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-15 Aaresh Bhathena , Salar Fattahi , Andrés Gómez , Simge Küçükyavuz

A faithful description of the state of a complex dynamical network would require, in principle, the measurement of all its $d$ variables, an infeasible task for systems with practical limited access and composed of many nodes with high…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-05-06 Christophe Letellier , Irene Sendiña-Nadal , Luis A. Aguirre

Ideally, the time that an incremental algorithm uses to process a change should be a function of the size of the change rather than, say, the size of the entire current input. Based on a formalization of ``the set of things changed'' by an…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2008-02-03 Mats Wirén

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

This paper is concerned with the detection of multiple change-points in the joint distribution of independent categorical variables. The procedures introduced rely on model selection and are based on a penalized least-squares criterion.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-08 Nathalie Akakpo

Learning latent costs of transitions on graphs from trajectories demonstrations under various contextual features is challenging but useful for path planning. Yet, existing methods either oversimplify cost assumptions or scale poorly with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Alan A. Lahoud , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes A. Stork

The goal of diagnosis is to compute good repair strategies in response to anomalous system behavior. In a decision theoretic framework, a good repair strategy has low expected cost. In a general formulation of the problem, the computation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Sampath Srinivas

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Out-of-distribution generalization under distributional shifts remains a critical challenge for graph neural networks. Existing methods generally adopt the Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework, requiring costly environment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Yang Qiu , Yixiong Zou , Jun Wang , Wei Liu , Xiangyu Fu , Ruixuan Li

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

We give the first almost-linear total time algorithm for deciding if a flow of cost at most $F$ still exists in a directed graph, with edge costs and capacities, undergoing decremental updates, i.e., edge deletions, capacity decreases, and…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Jan van den Brand , Li Chen , Rasmus Kyng , Yang P. Liu , Simon Meierhans , Maximilian Probst Gutenberg , Sushant Sachdeva

This paper focuses on the design of spatial experiments to optimize the amount of information derived from the experimental data and enhance the accuracy of the resulting causal effect estimator. We propose a surrogate function for the mean…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Jin Zhu , Jingyi Li , Hongyi Zhou , Yinan Lin , Zhenhua Lin , Chengchun Shi

Difference-in-differences is based on a parallel trends assumption, which states that changes over time in average potential outcomes are independent of treatment assignment, possibly conditional on covariates. With time-varying treatments,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Nicholas Illenberger , Iván Díaz , Audrey Renson

When estimating causal effects from observational studies, researchers often need to adjust for many covariates to deconfound the non-causal relationship between exposure and outcome, among which many covariates are discrete. The behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Zhenghao Zeng , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Yanjun Han , Edward H. Kennedy

Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Feng Xie , Zhengming Chen , Shanshan Luo , Wang Miao , Ruichu Cai , Zhi Geng

We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-28 Y. Samuel Wang , Mathias Drton