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Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of…
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice…
Forecasting the cost evolution of emerging clean technologies is crucial for informed policy, investment, and decarbonization decisions, yet it remains deeply uncertain. Learning curves, which link cost declines to cumulative deployment,…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) and large language models (LLMs) have enabled the systematic use of large-scale textual data from news, social media, and reports to create datasets with socio-economic impacts of climate…
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide. Media coverage of these events may be vital to generate empathy and mobilize global populations to address the common threat posed by climate change.…
When environmental regulations are unpopular, policymakers often attribute resistance to information frictions and poor communication. We test this idea in the context of a major climate policy: Germany's Heating Law of 2023, which mandates…
The impacts of climate change are intensifying existing vulnerabilities and disparities within urban communities around the globe, as extreme weather events, including floods and heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and severe,…
The challenges in operational flood forecasting lie in producing reliable forecasts given constrained computational resources and within processing times that are compatible with near-real-time forecasting. Flood hydrodynamic models exploit…
The rapid adoption of AI in Earth system science promises unprecedented speed and fidelity in the generation of climate information. However, this technological prowess rests on a fragile and unequal foundation: the current trajectory of AI…
Scientific knowledge and advances are a cornerstone of modern society. They improve our understanding of the world we live in and help us navigate global challenges including emerging infectious diseases, climate change and the biodiversity…
Every time the customer (individual or company) has to release personal information to its service provider (e.g., an online store or a cloud computing provider), it faces a trade-off between the benefits gained (enhanced or cheaper…
Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of…
Effective decision-making in complex systems requires synthesizing diverse perspectives to address multifaceted challenges under uncertainty. This study introduces an agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) framework for simulating decision…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…
Misinformation about climate change is a complex societal issue requiring holistic, interdisciplinary solutions at the intersection between technology and psychology. One proposed solution is a "technocognitive" approach, involving the…
Floods can cause horrific harm to life and property. However, they can be mitigated or even avoided by the effective use of hydraulic structures such as dams, gates, and pumps. By pre-releasing water via these structures in advance of…
A core research question in recommender systems is to propose batches of highly relevant and diverse items, that is, items personalized to the user's preferences, but which also might get the user out of their comfort zone. This diversity…
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion…