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Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Uncertainty of labels in clinical data resulting from intra-observer variability can have direct impact on the reliability of assessments made by deep neural networks. In this paper, we propose a method for modelling such uncertainty in the…

It has been observed in practice that applying pruning-at-initialization methods to neural networks and training the sparsified networks can not only retain the testing performance of the original dense models, but also sometimes even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Hongru Yang , Yingbin Liang , Xiaojie Guo , Lingfei Wu , Zhangyang Wang

When deploying deep neural networks on robots or other physical systems, the learned model should reliably quantify predictive uncertainty. A reliable uncertainty allows downstream modules to reason about the safety of its actions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Simon Kristoffersson Lind , Ziliang Xiong , Per-Erik Forssén , Volker Krüger

Evaluation of predictive deep learning (DL) models beyond conventional performance metrics has become increasingly important for applications in sensitive environments like healthcare. Such models might have the capability to encode and…

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Owen Thomas , Jukka Corander

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Tong Ye , Shijing Si , Jianzong Wang , Ning Cheng , Jing Xiao

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Lu Mi , Hao Wang , Yonglong Tian , Hao He , Nir Shavit

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Alexander Möllers , Alexander Immer , Elvin Isufi , Vincent Fortuin

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Observations of gravitational waves emitted by merging compact binaries have provided tantalising hints about stellar astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. However, the physical parameters describing the systems, (mass, spin,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-29 Colm Talbot , Jacob Golomb

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are most commonly optimised with first-order optimisers such as stochastic gradient descent. However, when optimising for parameters of probabilistic models, incorporating second order information during…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-18 Devina Mohan , Anna M. M. Scaife

Uncertainty quantification in PDE inverse problems is essential in many applications. Scientific machine learning and AI enable data-driven learning of model components while preserving physical structure, and provide the scalability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Ray Zirui Zhang , Christopher E. Miles , Xiaohui Xie , John S. Lowengrub

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

Uncertainty quantification is a critical missing component in radio interferometric imaging that will only become increasingly important as the big-data era of radio interferometry emerges. Since radio interferometric imaging requires…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-12 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

In medical imaging, inter-observer variability among radiologists often introduces label uncertainty, particularly in modalities where visual interpretation is subjective. Lung ultrasound (LUS) is a prime example-it frequently presents a…

Classifying the morphologies of radio galaxies is important to understand their physical properties and evolutionary histories. A galaxy's morphology is often determined by visual inspection, but as survey size increases robust automated…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-07-02 Emma Tolley

Machine learning algorithms have recently been used to classify students as those likely to receive an A or B or students likely to receive a C, D, or F in a physics class. The performance metrics used in that study become unreliable when…

Physics Education · Physics 2020-02-07 Seth DeVore , Jie Yang , John Stewart