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How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
Future electricity consumption is fundamentally uncertain and dependent on many variables such as economic activity, weather, electricity rates and demand side management. The stochasticity of system load as well as power generation from…
Intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in balancing the intermittent generation of renewable energy resources, which creates a need for accurate probabilistic price forecasts. However, research to date has focused…
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices…
This paper studies the extreme dependencies between energy, agriculture and metal commodity markets, with a focus on local co-movements, allowing the identification of asymmetries and changing trend in the degree of co-movements. More…
As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of…
With growing amounts of wind and solar power in the electricity mix of many European countries, understanding and predicting variations of renewable energy generation at multiple timescales is crucial to ensure reliable electricity systems.…
We study the prices of European Emission Allowances (EUA), whereby we analyze their uncertainty and dependencies on related energy prices (natural gas, coal, and oil). We propose a probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on…
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over…
Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a…
The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources, fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and introducing new criticalities that are only…
The variability and intermittency of renewable energy sources pose several challenges for power systems operations, including energy curtailment and price volatility. In power systems with considerable renewable sources, co-variability in…
Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…
The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…
In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical…
The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…
In a world increasingly powered by renewables and aiming for greenhouse gas-neutral industrial production, the future competitiveness of todays top manufacturing countries is questioned. This study applies detailed energy system modeling to…
Electricity prices in liberalized markets are determined by the supply and demand for electric power, which are in turn driven by various external influences that vary strongly in time. In perfect competition, the merit order principle…