Related papers: An extreme value approach to CoVaR estimation

Digital twin models allow us to continuously assess the possible risk of damage and failure of a complex system. Yet high-fidelity digital twin models can be computationally expensive, making quick-turnaround assessment challenging. Towards…

We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…

This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in a…

The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…

By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) of comonotonic sums can be decomposed into marginal VaR's at the same level. This additivity property allows to derive useful decompositions for other risk measures. In particular, the Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) and…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of Neyman-Pearson type binary solution. We…

Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

The measure of portfolio risk is an important input of the Markowitz framework. In this study, we explored various methods to obtain a robust covariance estimators that are less susceptible to financial data noise. We evaluated the…

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that…

We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…

We consider the problem of evaluating risk for a system that is modeled by a complex stochastic simulation with many possible input parameter values. Two sources of computational burden can be identified: the effort associated with…

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…

Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters,…