Related papers: An extreme value approach to CoVaR estimation

This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…

This paper is dedicated to the consistency of systemic risk measures with respect to stochastic dependence. It compares two alternative notions of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) available in the current literature. These notions are both…

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…

Copula-based Conditional Value at Risk (CCVaR) is defined as an alternative version of the classical Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for multivariate random vectors intended to be real-valued. We aim to generalize CCVaR to several…

Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…

Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…

This paper proposes an important extension to Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR), the popular systemic risk measure, and investigates its properties on the cryptocurrency market. The proposed Vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR) is defined as the…

${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…

This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…

This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…

This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…

The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a useful risk measure in fields such as machine learning, finance, insurance, energy, etc. When measuring very extreme risk, the commonly used CVaR estimation method of sample averaging does not work…

This paper introduces the notions of stability, ultimate boundedness, and positive invariance for stochastic systems in the view of risk. More specifically, those notions are defined in terms of the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk…