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Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-27 Thomas E. Coons , Aniket Jivani , Xun Huan

The design of informatively rich input signals is essential for accurate system identification, yet classical Fisher-information-based methods are inherently local and often inadequate in the presence of significant model uncertainty and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-15 Piotr Bania , Anna Wójcik

In this work, we introduce a new acquisition function for sequential sampling to efficiently quantify rare-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. Our…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Xianliang Gong , Yulin Pan

Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-11 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Roger G. Ghanem , Paris Hajali

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

Estimating the parameters of compact binaries which coalesce and produce gravitational waves is a challenging Bayesian inverse problem. Gravitational-wave parameter estimation lies within the class of multifidelity problems, where a variety…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-05-31 Bassel Saleh , Aaron Zimmerman , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

Bayesian optimal experimental design provides a principled framework for selecting experimental settings that maximize obtained information. In this work, we focus on estimating the expected information gain in the setting where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Chuntao Chen , Tapio Helin , Nuutti Hyvönen , Yuya Suzuki

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a common approach to address the extensive computationally demanding algorithms such as optimization, calibration and uncertainty quantification. Adaptive sampling for multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-30 Sayan Ghosh , Jesper Kristensen , Yiming Zhang , Waad Subber , Liping Wang

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Mihaela Chiappetta , Massimo Carraturo , Alexander Raßloff , Markus Kästner , Ferdinando Auricchio

Aerodynamic shape optimization in industry still faces challenges related to robustness and scalability. This aspect becomes crucial for advanced optimizations that rely on expensive high-fidelity flow solvers, where computational budget…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-05-26 Marc Schouler , Anca Belme , Paola Cinnella

Multifidelity approximation is an important technique in scientific computation and simulation. In this paper, we introduce a bandit-learning approach for leveraging data of varying fidelities to achieve precise estimates of the parameters…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-22 Yiming Xu , Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

Optimization constrained by high-fidelity computational models has potential for transformative impact. However, such optimization is frequently unattainable in practice due to the complexity and computational intensity of the model. An…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Promit Chakroborty , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Michael D. Shields

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

High-fidelity scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows quickly become prohibitively expensive, especially at high Reynolds numbers. As a remedy, we may use multifidelity models (MFM) to construct predictive models for flow quantities…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-06-14 Saleh Rezaeiravesh , Timofey Mukha , Philipp Schlatter

We present a novel probabilistic approach for generating multi-fidelity data while accounting for errors inherent in both low- and high-fidelity data. In this approach a graph Laplacian constructed from the low-fidelity data is used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Orazio Pinti , Jeremy M. Budd , Franca Hoffmann , Assad A. Oberai

A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , Ruth E Baker

Bayesian optimization (BO) is increasingly employed in critical applications such as materials design and drug discovery. An increasingly popular strategy in BO is to forgo the sole reliance on high-fidelity data and instead use an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-22 Zahra Zanjani Foumani , Mehdi Shishehbor , Amin Yousefpour , Ramin Bostanabad

In this article, we consider a stochastic numerical simulator to assess the impact of some factors on a phenomenon. The simulator is seen as a black box with inputs and outputs. The quality of a simulation, hereafter referred to as…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-27 Rémi Stroh , Séverine Demeyer , Nicolas Fischer , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Recently, multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) has been successfully applied to many engineering design optimization problems, where the cost of high-fidelity simulations and experiments can be prohibitive. However, challenges remain…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Jingyi Wang , Nai-Yuan Chiang , Tucker Hartland , J. Luc Peterson , Jerome Solberg , Cosmin G. Petra