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The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-15 Hrvoje Planinić

We consider the clustering of extremes for stationary regularly varying random fields over arbitrary growing index sets. We study sufficient assumptions on the index set such that the limit of the point random fields of the exceedances…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-23 Riccardo Passeggeri , Olivier Wintenberger

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Philippe Soulier

The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Hock Peng Chan

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-27 Richard A. Davis , Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao

We study the extremes of multivariate regularly varying random fields. The crucial tools in our study are the tail field and the spectral field, notions that extend the tail and spectral processes of Basrak and Segers (2009). The spatial…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Lifan Wu , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We consider a stationary random field indexed by an increasing sequence of subsets of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ obeying a very broad geometrical assumption on how the sequence expands. Under certain mixing and local conditions, we show how the tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Anders Rønn-Nielsen , Mads Stehr

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

The risk of catastrophes is related to the possibility of occurring extreme values. Several statistical methodologies have been developed in order to evaluate the propensity of a process for the occurrence of high values and the permanence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-08 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Martín Alcalde , Raúl Gouet , Miguel Lafuente , F. Javier López , Gerardo Sanz

In this work, we define the notion of unimodular random measured metric spaces as a common generalization of various other notions. This includes the discrete cases like unimodular graphs and stationary point processes, as well as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Ali Khezeli

Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-20 Fabrizio Laurini , Paul Fearnhead , Jonathan A. Tawn

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Sohail Bahmani

We consider stationary configurations of points in Euclidean space which are marked by positive random variables called scores. The scores are allowed to depend on the relative positions of other points and outside sources of randomness.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Bojan Basrak , Ilya Molchanov , Hrvoje Planinić

Different questions related with analysis of extreme values and outliers arise frequently in practice. To exclude extremal observations and outliers is not a good decision because they contain important information about the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Monika P. Petkova

Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-30 Paul Rochet , Isabel Serra
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