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This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting…

Change-point models are frequently considered when modeling phenomena where a regime shift occurs at an unknown time. In ageing research, these models are commonly adopted to estimate of the onset of cognitive decline. Yet commonly used…

The premise of independence among subjects in the same cluster/group often fails in practice, and models that rely on such untenable assumption can produce misleading results. To overcome this severe deficiency, we introduce a new…

This paper develops computationally feasible methods for estimating random effects models in the context of regression modelling of multiple independent time series of discrete valued counts in which there is serial dependence. Given…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Several epidemiological studies have provided evidence that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases mortality risk. Furthermore, some population characteristics (e.g., age, race, and socioeconomic status) might play…

A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…

Background: Reliable prediction of clinical progression over time can improve the outcomes of depression. Little work has been done integrating various risk factors for depression, to determine the combinations of factors with the greatest…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

Age-specific probabilities of death provide a snapshot of population mortality at the country level at a given point in time. Due to the high dimensionality of the data, summarising mortality information is essential for various analyses,…

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…

Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…

This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…