Related papers: Time varying regression with hidden linear dynamic…

We consider the problem of forecasting complex, nonlinear space-time processes when observations provide only partial information of on the system's state. We propose a natural data-driven framework, where the system's dynamics are modelled…

Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an…

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

We consider the problem of learning the dynamics of a linear system when one has access to data generated by an auxiliary system that shares similar (but not identical) dynamics, in addition to data from the true system. We use a weighted…

An emerging way of tackling the dimensionality issues arising in the modeling of a multivariate process is to assume that the inherent data structure can be captured by a graph. Nevertheless, though state-of-the-art graph-based methods have…

The estimation of parameters in a linear model is considered under the hypothesis that the noise, with finite second order statistics, can be represented in a given deterministic basis by random coefficients. An extended underdetermined…

In this paper, we aim to improve multivariate anomaly detection (AD) by modeling the \textit{time-varying non-linear spatio-temporal correlations} found in multivariate time series data . In multivariate time series data, an anomaly may be…

Graph-based techniques emerged as a choice to deal with the dimensionality issues in modeling multivariate time series. However, there is yet no complete understanding of how the underlying structure could be exploited to ease this task.…

We study the problem of modeling a non-linear dynamical system when given a time series by deriving equations directly from the data. Despite the fact that time series data are given as input, models for dynamics and estimation algorithms…

We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…

In this note a new high performance least squares parameter estimator is proposed. The main features of the estimator are: (i) global exponential convergence is guaranteed for all identifiable linear regression equations; (ii) it…

In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic sequence model that excels at capturing high variability in time series data, both across sequences and within an individual sequence. Our method uses temporal latent variables to capture…

Weak consistency and asymptotic normality of the ordinary least-squares estimator in a linear regression with adaptive learning is derived when the crucial, so-called, `gain' parameter is estimated in a first step by nonlinear least squares…

We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…

We consider likelihood-based two-step estimation of latent variable models, in which just the measurement model is estimated in the first step and the measurement parameters are then fixed at their estimated values in the second step where…

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…

In this paper, we apply the recently developed generalized parameter estimation-based observer design technique for state-affine systems to the practically important case of linear time-varying descriptor systems with uncertain parameters.…

In the wild, we often encounter collections of sequential data such as electrocardiograms, motion capture, genomes, and natural language, and sequences may be multichannel or symbolic with nonlinear dynamics. We introduce a new method to…

In the traditional framework of spectral learning of stochastic time series models, model parameters are estimated based on trajectories of fully recorded observations. However, real-world time series data often contain missing values, and…

This paper proposes a fast and accurate method for sparse regression in the presence of missing data. The underlying statistical model encapsulates the low-dimensional structure of the incomplete data matrix and the sparsity of the…