Related papers: Unbiased Parameter Inference for a Class of Partia…
We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…
We propose a data-efficient Gaussian process-based Bayesian approach to the semi-supervised learning problem on graphs. The proposed model shows extremely competitive performance when compared to the state-of-the-art graph neural networks…
A method is developed to estimate the parameters of a Levy copula of a discretely observed bivariate compound Poisson process without knowledge of common shocks. The method is tested in a small sample simulation study. Also, the method is…
We address the problem of estimating unknown model parameters and state variables in stochastic reaction processes when only sparse and noisy measurements are available. Using an asymptotic system size expansion for the backward equation we…
Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…
Empirical researchers increasingly use upstream machine-learning (ML) methods to construct proxies for latent target variables from complex, unstructured data. A naive plug-in use of such proxies in downstream econometric models, however,…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…
In broad applications, it is routinely of interest to assess whether there is evidence in the data to refute the assumption of conditional independence of $Y$ and $X$ conditionally on $Z$. Such tests are well developed in parametric models…
A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…
We establish inequalities for assessing the distance between the distribution of errors of partially observed high-frequency statistics of multidimensional L\'evy processes and that of a mixed Gaussian random variable. Furthermore, we…
We present an unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means based on kinetic Langevin dynamics that combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations. Our approach avoids Metropolis correction by coupling Markov…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
Unnormalized (or energy-based) models provide a flexible framework for capturing the characteristics of data with complex dependency structures. However, the application of standard Bayesian inference methods has been severely limited…
We suppose that a L\'evy process is observed at discrete time points. Starting from an asymptotically minimax family of estimators for the continuous part of the L\'evy Khinchine characteristics, i.e., the covariance, we derive a…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) provides a flexible approach for non-linear dimensionality reduction that has been widely applied. However, the current approach for training GP-LVMs is based on maximum likelihood, where…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…