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Treatment policy estimands are frequently favored by regulators, as they assess the effect of treatment assignment regardless of post-randomization events. Despite best efforts, missing data due to study discontinuation cannot be fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Ajmal Oodally , Craig Wang , Zheng Li , Tim Morris , Tobias Mütze , Arunava Chakravartty

Policy gradient methods are very attractive in reinforcement learning due to their model-free nature and convergence guarantees. These methods, however, suffer from high variance in gradient estimation, resulting in poor sample efficiency.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Sergey Pankov

Meta-analysis is a well-established tool used to combine data from several independent studies, each of which usually compares the effect of an experimental treatment with a control group. While meta-analyses are often performed using…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Phuc Thien Tran , Long-Hao Xu , Christian Röver , Tim Friede

Evaluation of intervention in a multiagent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Keisuke Fujii , Koh Takeuchi , Atsushi Kuribayashi , Naoya Takeishi , Yoshinobu Kawahara , Kazuya Takeda

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

Companies offering web services routinely run randomized online experiments to estimate the causal impact associated with the adoption of new features and policies on key performance metrics of interest. These experiments are used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-13 Lorenzo Masoero , Doug Hains , James McQueen

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), missing data can occur in various ways, including missing values in outcomes and baseline covariates at the individual or cluster level, or completely missing information for non-participants. Among the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Rui Wang

Target trial emulation (TTE) is a popular framework for observational studies based on electronic health records (EHR). A key component of this framework is determining the patient population eligible for inclusion in both a target trial of…

The estimation of the treatment effect is often biased in the presence of unobserved confounding variables which are commonly referred to as hidden variables. Although a few methods have been recently proposed to handle the effect of hidden…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Kevin Jiang , Yang Ning

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

Motivated by empirical studies investigating treatment effects in survival analysis, we propose a bivariate transformation model to quantify the impact of a binary treatment on a time-to-event outcome. The model equations are connected…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-03 Giampiero Marra , Rosalba Radice

In recent years, there has been growing interest in causal machine learning estimators for quantifying subject-specific effects of a binary treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Estimation approaches have been proposed which attenuate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Two commonly used methods for improving precision and power in clinical trials are stratified randomization and covariate adjustment. However, many trials do not fully capitalize on the combined precision gains from these two methods, which…

Randomized A/B tests within online learning platforms represent an exciting direction in learning sciences. With minimal assumptions, they allow causal effect estimation without confounding bias and exact statistical inference even in small…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Adam C. Sales , Ethan B. Prihar , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch , Neil T. Heffernan

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

Mediation analysis is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying exposure-outcome relationships. In this paper, we identify the instrumental variable (IV)-direct effect of the exposure on the outcome not through the mediator, using…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J van der Laan