Related papers: On the relationship between calibrated predictors …

In binary classification tasks, accurate representation of probabilistic predictions is essential for various real-world applications such as predicting payment defaults or assessing medical risks. The model must then be well-calibrated to…

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained…

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes environments, ensuring both probabilistic reliability and prediction stability has become critical. This paper examines the interplay between classification calibration and…

The impressive growth of data throughput in optical microscopy has triggered a widespread use of supervised learning (SL) models running on compressed image datasets for efficient automated analysis. However, since lossy image compression…

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Accurate assessment of pulmonary emphysema is crucial to assess disease severity and subtype, to monitor disease progression and to predict lung cancer risk. However, visual assessment is time-consuming and subject to substantial…

Automating chest radiograph interpretation using Deep Learning (DL) models has the potential to significantly improve clinical workflows, decision-making, and large-scale health screening. However, in medical settings, merely optimising…

Distributed calibration based on consensus optimization is a computationally efficient method to calibrate large radio interferometers such as LOFAR and SKA. Calibrating along multiple directions in the sky and removing the bright…

Recent studies have confirmed cardiovascular diseases remain responsible for highest death toll amongst non-communicable diseases. Accurate left ventricular (LV) volume estimation is critical for valid diagnosis and management of various…

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification,…

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024)…

In causal inference, sensitivity models assess how unmeasured confounders could alter causal analyses, but the sensitivity parameter -- which quantifies the degree of unmeasured confounding -- is often difficult to interpret. For this…

The alignment of large language models (LLMs) with human values increasingly relies on using other LLMs as automated judges, or ``autoraters''. However, their reliability is limited by a foundational issue: they are trained on discrete…

We develop confidence sets which provide spatial uncertainty guarantees for the output of a black-box machine learning model designed for image segmentation. To do so we adapt conformal inference to the imaging setting, obtaining thresholds…

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident…

The use of AI systems in healthcare for the early screening of diseases is of great clinical importance. Deep learning has shown great promise in medical imaging, but the reliability and trustworthiness of AI systems limit their deployment…