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Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

In randomized experiments, treatment and control groups should be roughly the same--balanced--in their distributions of pretreatment variables. But how nearly so? Can descriptive comparisons meaningfully be paired with significance tests?…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-08-29 Ben B. Hansen , Jake Bowers

Theoretical guarantees for causal inference using propensity scores are partly based on the scores behaving like conditional probabilities. However, scores between zero and one, especially when outputted by flexible statistical estimators,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Rom Gutman , Ehud Karavani , Yishai Shimoni

Multi-Regional Clinical Trials (MRCTs) play a central role in the development of new therapies by enabling the simultaneous evaluation of drug efficacy and safety across diverse global populations. Assessing the consistency of treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-10 Kunhai Qing , Xinru Ren , Jin Xu , Menggang Yu

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Sahil Shikalgar , Md. Noor-E-Alam

The win ratio offers a flexible approach to incorporate the hierarchy of clinical outcomes into the analysis of a composite endpoint, enabling simultaneous consideration of multiple outcome types, unlike traditional time-to-first-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 David Kronthaler , Matthias Schwenkglenks , Felix Beuschlein , Ulrike Held

Though platform trials have been touted for their flexibility and streamlined use of trial resources, their statistical efficiency is not well understood. We fill this gap by establishing their greater efficiency for comparing the relative…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Tzu-Jung Huang , Alex Luedtke , the AMP Investigators Group

Platform trials gained popularity during the last few years as they increase flexibility compared to multi-arm trials by allowing new experimental arms entering when the trial already started. Using a shared control group in platform trials…

Combination drug therapies hold significant promise for enhancing treatment efficacy, particularly in fields such as oncology, immunotherapy, and infectious diseases. However, designing clinical trials for these regimens poses unique…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Nan Miles Xi , Man Mandy Jin , Lin Wang , Xin Huang

In randomized trials, repeated measures of the outcome are routinely collected. The mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM) leverages the information from these repeated outcome measures, and is often used for the primary analysis to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Bingkai Wang , Yu Du

Optimal treatment regimes are personalized policies for making a treatment decision based on subject characteristics, with the policy chosen to maximize some value. It is common to aim to maximize the mean outcome in the population, via a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Liu Leqi , Edward H. Kennedy

When a novel treatment has successfully passed phase I, different options to design subsequent phase II trials are available. One approach is a single-arm trial, comparing the response rate in the intervention group against a fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Johannes Krisam , Dorothea Weber , Richard F. Schlenk , Meinhard Kieser

Equivalence testing plays a key role in several domains, such as the development of generic medical products, which are therapeutically equivalent to brand-name drugs but with reduced cost and increased accessibility. Promoting access to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Luca Insolia , Yanyuan Ma , Younes Boulaguiem , Stéphane Guerrier

In early-phase clinical trials, a predictive biomarker may identify subgroups that benefit from an experimental therapy, even when the overall average treatment effect is negligible. Recently proposed nonparametric interaction tests such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-15 Nan Miles Xi , Lin Wang

In this paper, we provide a statistical testing framework to check whether a random sample splitting in a multi-dimensional space is carried out in a valid way, which could be directly applied to A/B testing and multivariate testing to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-11 Jing Miao , Hongyuan Yuan , Zhenyu Yan

When we plan to use money as an incentive to change the behavior of a person (such as making riders to deliver more orders or making consumers to buy more items), the common approach of this problem is to adopt a two-stage framework in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Juhua Chen , Karson shi , Jialing He , North Chen , Kele Jiang

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah

Both cluster randomized trials and quasi-experimental designs are used to evaluate the impact of health and social policies and interventions. Stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials randomize a staggered adoption approach, while recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Haidong Lu , Gregg S. Gonsalves , Fan Li , Guanyu Tong , Lee Kennedy-Shaffer

A key aspect of patient-focused drug development is identifying and measuring outcomes that are important to patients in clinical trials. Many medical conditions affect multiple symptom domains, and a consensus approach to determine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 David S. Robertson , Thomas Jaki

Randomized experiments play a major role in data-driven decision making across many different fields and disciplines. In medicine, for example, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the backbone of clinical trial methodology for testing…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-30 Andrew W. Correia