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Using concentration inequalities, we give non-asymptotic confidence intervals for estimates obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, when using the approximation $\mathbb{E}_{\pi} f\approx (1/(N-t_0))\cdot \sum_{i=t_0+1}^N…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-29 Benjamin M. Gyori , Daniel Paulin

Simulations of strongly interacting lattice field theories are typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Therefore estimators of statistical errors must incorporate the effect of autocorrelations by integrating the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2026-05-11 Mattia Bruno , Gabriele Morandi

An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-08 Chih-Hao Lin , Chia-Seng Chang , Sai-Ping Li

In this review we discuss, from a unified point of view, a variety of Monte Carlo methods used to solve eigenvalue problems in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics. Although the applications of these methods differ widely, the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-05-21 M. P. Nightingale , C. J. Umrigar

Besides the well-known effect of autocorrelations in time series of Monte Carlo simulation data resulting from the underlying Markov process, using the same data pool for computing various estimates entails additional cross correlations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-11-20 Martin Weigel , Wolfhard Janke

Modern problems in statistics tend to include estimators of high computational complexity and with complicated distributions. Statistical inference on such estimators usually relies on asymptotic normality assumptions, however, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Eyal Fisher , Regev Schweiger , Saharon Rosset

A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap's consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-16 Eric Beutner , Alexander Heinemann , Stephan Smeekes

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Andreas Frommer , Mostafa Nasr Khalil , Gustavo Ramirez-Hidalgo

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Jiezhong Wu , Reiichiro Kawai

Monte Carlo simulations have boosted the numerical study of several different physical systems and in particular, the canonical ensemble has been especially useful because of the existence of easy and efficient relaxation algorithms…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-29 G. Palma , A. Riveros

Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-14 John C. Quinn , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data,…

Computation · Statistics 2010-09-01 Michael Amrein , Hans R. Kuensch

Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-26 Jonathan C. Mattingly , Andrew M. Stuart , M. V. Tretyakov

Multivariate locally stationary functional time series provide a flexible framework for modeling complex data structures exhibiting both temporal and spatial dependencies while allowing for time-varying data generating mechanism. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Lujia Bai , Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

In an earlier paper Rakonczai et al. (2014), we have emphasized the effective sample size for autocorrelated data. The simulations were based on the block bootstrap methodology. However, the discreteness of the usual block size did not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-02 László Varga , András Zempléni

In this paper we investigate the problem of testing the assumption of stationarity in locally stationary processes. The test is based on an estimate of a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type distance between the true time varying spectral density and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 Philip Preuß , Mathias Vetter , Holger Dette

Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-13 Brian Vegetabile , Jenny Molet , Tallie Z. Baram , Hal Stern

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-12 Tiangang Cui , Colin Fox , Michael J O'Sullivan