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In this paper we study time-inhomogeneous affine processes beyond the common assumption of stochastic continuity. In this setting times of jumps can be both inaccessible and predictable. To this end we develop a general theory of finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Martin Keller-Ressel , Thorsten Schmidt , Robert Wardenga

We construct martingale observables for systems of multiple SLE curves by applying screening techniques within the CFT framework recently developed by Kang and Makarov, extended to admit multiple SLEs. We illustrate this approach by…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-12 Jonatan Lenells , Fredrik Viklund

Growth-fragmentation processes describe the evolution of systems in which cells grow slowly and fragment suddenly. Despite originating as a way to describe biological phenomena, they have recently been found to describe the lengths of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-08 Alexander R. Watson

Let $(\xi_i,\mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq1}$ be a sequence of martingale differences. Set $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n\xi_i $ and $[ S]_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \xi_i^2.$ We prove a Cram\'er type moderate deviation expansion for $\mathbf{P}(S_n/\sqrt{[ S]_n} \geq x)$…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu , Qi-Man Shao

A multi-type branching process is defined as a random tree with labeled vertices, where each vertex produces offspring independently according to the same multivariate probability distribution. We demonstrate that in realizations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Jochem Hoogendijk , Ivan Kryven , Rik Versendaal

This work is devoted to P\'olya-Young urns, a class of periodic P\'olya urns of importance in the analysis of Young tableaux. We provide several extension of the previous results of Banderier, Marchal and Wallner [Ann. Prob. (2020)] on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Markus Kuba

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

Nerman's martingale plays a central role in the law of large numbers for both, single- and multi-type, supercritical general branching processes. There are further, complex-valued Nerman-type martingales in the single-type process that…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Konrad Kolesko , Matthias Meiners , Ivana Tomic

We consider a homogenous fragmentation process with killing at an exponential barrier. With the help of two families of martingales we analyse the growth of the largest fragment for parameter values that allow for survival. In this respect…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-21 Robert Knobloch , Andreas E. Kyprianou

We introduce a new class of processes for the evaluation of multivariate equity derivatives. The proposed setting is well suited for the application of the standard copula function theory to processes, rather than variables, and easily…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2016-07-07 Umberto Cherubini , Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci , Silvia Romagnoli

We extend the peeling exploration introduced in arxiv:1506.01590 to the setting of Boltzmann planar maps coupled to a rigid $O(n)$ loop model. Its law is related to a class of discrete Markov processes obtained by confining random walks to…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Timothy Budd

Homogeneous mass fragmentation processes describe the evolution of a unit mass that breaks down randomly into pieces as time. Mathematically speaking, they can be thought of as continuous-time analogues of branching random walks with…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Andreas E. Kyprianou , Thomas Madaule

Our principal aim is to observe the Markov discrete-time process of population growth with long-living trajectory. First we study asymptotical decay of generating function of Galton-Watson process for all cases as the Basic Lemma.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Azam A. Imomov

For supercritical multitype branching processes in continuous time, we investigate the evolution of types along those lineages that survive up to some time t. We establish almost-sure convergence theorems for both time and population…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hans-Otto Georgii , Ellen Baake

In this paper, we propose to study a general notion of a down-up Markov chain for multifurcating trees with n labelled leaves. We study in detail down-up chains associated with the $(\alpha, \gamma)$-model of Chen et al. (2009),…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Frederik Sørensen

Many complex systems have been shown to share universal properties of organization, such as scale independence, modularity and self-similarity. We borrow tools from statistical physics in order to study structural preferential attachment…

We consider multitype branching processes arising in the study of random laminations of the disk. We classify these processes according to their subcritical or supercritical behavior and provide Kolmogorov-type estimates in the critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-29 Nicolas Curien , Yuval Peres

Consider a branching random walk in which the offspring distribution and the moving law both depend on an independent and identically distributed random environment indexed by the time.For the normalised counting measure of the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Zhi-Qiang Gao , Quansheng Liu

Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Svend-Erik Graversen , Jan Pedersen

We study the asymptotic behaviour of uniform random maps with a prescribed face-degree sequence, in the bipartite case, as the number of faces tends to infinity. Under mild assumptions, we show that, properly rescaled, such maps converge in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-13 Cyril Marzouk
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