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We derive a refined conjecture for the variance of Gaussian primes across sectors, with a power saving error term, by applying the L-functions Ratios Conjecture. We observe a bifurcation point in the main term, consistent with the Random…

We propose a new class of monetary risk measures for assessing financial and ESG risk. The construction is based on classical shortfall risk measures with loss function replaced by a multi-attribute utility function. We present an extensive…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-04 Sebastian Geissel , Christoph Knochenhauer

Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-03 Benjie Wang , Stefan Webb , Tom Rainforth

We propose a novel and efficient algorithm for the collaborative preference completion problem, which involves jointly estimating individualized rankings for a set of entities over a shared set of items, based on a limited number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Suriya Gunasekar , Oluwasanmi Koyejo , Joydeep Ghosh

We develop a method for computing policies in Markov decision processes with risk-sensitive measures subject to temporal logic constraints. Specifically, we use a particular risk-sensitive measure from cumulative prospect theory, which has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Murat Cubuktepe , Ufuk Topcu

We consider the combination of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts when a large pool of candidate forecasts is available. Given the limited literature in this area, we implement a variety of new combining methods. In…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-15 James W. Taylor , Chao Wang

A long-standing question about consumer behavior is whether individuals' observed purchase decisions satisfy the revealed preference (RP) axioms of the utility maximization theory (UMT). Researchers using survey or experimental panel data…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-21 Victor H. Aguiar , Nail Kashaev

In this paper, we discuss the utilization of perturbed risk levels (PRLs) for the solution of chance-constrained problems via sampling-based approaches. PRLs allow the consideration of distributional ambiguity by rescaling the risk level of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Moritz Heinlein , Teodoro Alamo , Sergio Lucia

In this paper, we consider a situation where a decision maker's (DM's) risk preference can be described by a spectral risk measure (SRM) but there is not a single SRM which can be used to represent the DM's preferences consistently.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Manlan Li , Xiaojiao Tong , Huifu Xu

We derive a family of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning methods for agents, who face sequential decision-making tasks in uncertain environments. By applying a utility function to the temporal difference (TD) error, nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-10 Yun Shen , Michael J. Tobia , Tobias Sommer , Klaus Obermayer

This paper studies continuous-time risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) under the entropy-regularized, exploratory diffusion process formulation with the exponential-form objective. The risk-sensitive objective arises either as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Yanwei Jia

A recent article introduced thecontinuous stochastic gradient method (CSG) for the efficient solution of a class of stochastic optimization problems. While the applicability of known stochastic gradient type methods is typically limited to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Lukas Pflug , Max Grieshammer , Andrian Uihlein , Michael Stingl

Stochastic dominance is a preference relation of uncertain prospect defined over a class of utility functions. While this utility class represents basic properties of risk aversion, it includes some extreme utility functions rarely…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-29 Jian Hu , Gevorg Stepanyan

The goal of a recommendation system is to model the relevance between each user and each item through the user-item interaction history, so that maximize the positive samples score and minimize negative samples. Currently, two popular loss…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Chun Yang , Shicai Fan

Shortfall systemic (multivariate) risk measures $\rho$ defined through an $N$-dimensional multivariate utility function $U$ and random allocations can be represented as classical (one dimensional) shortfall risk measures associated to an…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-21 Alessandro Doldi , Marco Frittelli , Emanuela Rosazza Gianin

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Cheng Peng , Stanislav Uryasev

Predicting risks of chronic diseases has become increasingly important in clinical practice. When a prediction model is developed in a given source cohort, there is often a great interest to apply the model to other cohorts. However, due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-05 Zheng Jiayin , Zheng Yingye , Hsu Li

Probability measures by themselves, are known to be inappropriate for modeling the dynamics of plain belief and their excessively strong measurability constraints make them unsuitable for some representational tasks, e.g. in the context of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Emil Weydert

The inverse probability weighting (IPW) is broadly utilized to address missing data problems including causal inference but may suffer from large variances and biases due to propensity score model misspecification. To solve these problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Hiroto Katsumata

Decisions under uncertainty or with multiple objectives usually require the decision maker to formulate a preference regarding risks or trade-offs. If this preference is known, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) criterion can be applied…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-02 Werner Baak , Marc Goerigk , Michael Hartisch