Related papers: Dollar Cost Averaging Returns Estimation
Subordination is an often used stochastic process in modeling asset prices. Subordinated Levy price processes and local volatility price processes are now the main tools in modern dynamic asset pricing theory. In this paper, we introduce…
This paper examines a semi-analytical approach for pricing American options in time-inhomogeneous models characterized by negative interest rates (for equity/FX) or negative convenience yields (for commodities/cryptocurrencies). Under such…
We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…
Technical trading rules and linear regressive models are often used by practitioners to find trends in financial data. However, these models are unsuited to find non-linearly separable patterns. We propose a decision tree forecasting model…
The value of an American option is the maximized value of the discounted cash flows from the option. At each time step, one needs to compare the immediate exercise value with the continuation value and decide to exercise as soon as the…
In the context of life insurance with profit participation, the future discretionary benefits ($FDB$), which are a central item for Solvency~II reporting, are generally calculated by computationally expensive Monte Carlo algorithms. We…
This paper investigates a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem with the following features: (i) a no-short selling constraint; (ii) a leverage constraint, that is, an upper limit for the sum of portfolio weights; and (iii) a…
A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow…
In a rather general setting of multivariate stochastic volatility market models we derive global iterative probabilistic schemes for computing the free boundary and its Greeks for a generic class of American derivative models using…
A common assumption in financial engineering is that the market price for any derivative coincides with an objectively defined risk-neutral price - a plausible assumption only if traders collectively possess objective knowledge about the…
We find a simple expression for the probability density of $\int \exp (B_s - s/2) ds$ in terms of its distribution function and the distribution function for the time integral of $\exp (B_s + s/2)$. The relation is obtained with a change of…
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric…
This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by…
We analyze correlations among stock returns via a series of widely adopted parameters which we refer to as explanatory variables. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a long only quantitative adaptive technique to construct a…
We study a class of infinite-horizon average-cost Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose reward and transition structures are nearly separable. For the totally separable baseline (that is, with no perturbation), we derive an explicit…
An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on…
We study decades-long historic distributions of accumulated S\&P500 returns, from daily returns to those over several weeks. The time series of the returns emphasize major upheavals in the markets -- Black Monday, Tech Bubble, Financial…
I show that U.S. incomes follow a one-parameter family of probability distributions over more than fifty years of data. I compare statistical models of income, and I highlight the inverse-gamma distribution as a parsimonious model that…
This paper presents a simple method for a posteriori (historical) multi-variate multi-stage optimal trading under transaction costs and a diversification constraint. Starting from a given amount of money in some currency, we analyze the…
We analyse the effect of a proportional wealth tax on asset returns, portfolio choice, and asset pricing. The tax is levied annually on the market value of all holdings at a uniform rate. We show that such a tax is economically equivalent…