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A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

Missing exposure information is a very common feature of many observational studies. Here we study identifiability and efficient estimation of causal effects on vector outcomes, in such cases where treatment is unconfounded but partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-04 Edward H. Kennedy

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

Conditions ensuring optimal parameter estimation in the presence of missing data are well established in inference, typically relying on the Missing-at-Random (MAR) assumption. In prediction, similar principles are often assumed to apply.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Pierre Catoire , Robin Genuer , Cecile Proust-Lima

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. We show that the likelihood ratio test tends to…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-11-25 Artur J. Lemonte , Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Francisco Cribari-Neto

Bayesian inference is a widely used statistical method. The free energy and generalization loss, which are used to estimate the accuracy of Bayesian inference, are known to be small in singular models that do not have a unique optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Shuya Nagayasu , Sumio Watanabe

We consider nonsynchronous sampling of parameterized stochastic regression models, which contain stochastic differential equations. Constructing a quasi-likelihood function, we prove that the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-21 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

This paper is an attempt to set a justification for making use of some dicrepancy indexes, starting from the classical Maximum Likelihood definition, and adapting the corresponding basic principle of inference to situations where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Michel Broniatowski

We propose a way to remove the bias of a Poisson regression when the subjects are partially observed. In this paper we address this issue under certain assumptions about the missing-data generating process. We fix the total number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-08 Seyed Jalil Kazemitabar

This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…

Applications · Statistics 2009-07-29 Marie-Pierre Etienne , Eric Parent , Benoit Hugues , Bernier Jacques

Machine learning algorithms permeate the day-to-day aspects of our lives and therefore studying the fairness of these algorithms before implementation is crucial. One way in which bias can manifest in a dataset is through missing values.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Aeysha Bhatti , Trudie Sandrock , Johane Nienkemper-Swanepoel

Randomization tests are based on a re-randomization of existing data to gain data-dependent critical values that lead to exact hypothesis tests under special circumstances. However, it is not always possible to re-randomize data in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-20 Dennis Dobler

Asymptotic bootstrap validity is usually understood as consistency of the distribution of a bootstrap statistic, conditional on the data, for the unconditional limit distribution of a statistic of interest. From this perspective, randomness…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-09 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Iliyan Georgiev

Missing data are prevalent and present daunting challenges in real data analysis. While there is a growing body of literature on fairness in analysis of fully observed data, there has been little theoretical work on investigating fairness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Yiliang Zhang , Qi Long

In this paper, a novel test for testing whether data are Missing Completely at Random is proposed. Asymptotic properties of the test are derived utilizing the theory of non-degenerate U-statistics. It is shown that the novel test statistic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Danijel Aleksić

Population dynamics models play an important role in a number of fields, such as actuarial science, demography, and ecology, as they help explain past fluctuations and predict future population. The accuracy of these models is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Paolo Onorati , Sofia Ruiz-Suarez , Radu Craiu

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Thomas J. Loredo , Robert L. Wolpert

We derive inferential procedures for large sample sizes that remain valid under data-dependent significance levels (so-called "post-hoc valid inference"). Classical statistical tools require that the significance level -- the "type-I error"…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Ben Chugg , Etienne Gauthier , Michael I. Jordan , Aaditya Ramdas , Ian Waudby-Smith

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Tobias Kallehauge

Missing covariates are not uncommon in capture-recapture studies. When covariate information is missing at random in capture-recapture data, an empirical full likelihood method has been demonstrated to outperform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Yang Liu , Yukun Liu , Pengfei Li , Riquan Zhang