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The basic problem in equilibrium statistical mechanics is to compute phase space average, in which Monte Carlo method plays a very important role. We begin with a review of nonlocal algorithms for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in…
The perceived advantage of machine learning (ML) models is that they are flexible and can incorporate a large number of features. However, many of these are typically correlated or dependent, and incorporating all of them can hinder model…
We here consider the subset simulation method which approaches a failure event using a decreasing sequence of nested intermediate failure events. The method resembles importance sampling, which actively explores a probability space by…
Sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs), that is multivariate Gaussian ran- dom vectors that are parameterised by the inverse of their covariance matrix, is a fundamental problem in computational statistics. In this paper, we…
Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods are widely used to assess parametric uncertainties of hydrologic models conditioned on measurements of observable state variables. However, when the model is CPU-intensive and…
Pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs) or undirected graphical models are parsimonious representations of joint probability distributions. Variables correspond to nodes of a graph, with edges between nodes corresponding to conditional…
Consider $n$ random variables forming a Markov random field (MRF). The true model of the MRF is unknown, and it is assumed to belong to a binary set. The objective is to sequentially sample the random variables (one-at-a-time) such that the…
Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…
The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method offers an across-model simulation approach for Bayesian estimation and model comparison, by exploring the sampling space that consists of several models of possibly varying…
We propose a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method in which trial configurations are generated by evolving a state, sampled from a prior distribution, using a Markov transition matrix. We present two prototypical algorithms and derive their…
We study the performance of an automated hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) approach for conditional simulation of a recently proposed, single-parameter Gibbs Markov random field (Gibbs MRF). The MRF is based on a modified version of the planar…
Learning the structure of Markov random fields (MRFs) plays an important role in multivariate analysis. The importance has been increasing with the recent rise of statistical relational models since the MRF serves as a building block of…
Hierarchical spatial models are very flexible and popular for a vast array of applications in areas such as ecology, social science, public health, and atmospheric science. It is common to carry out Bayesian inference for these models via…
Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…
Continuous-time Markov chains are frequently used as stochastic models for chemical reaction networks, especially in the growing field of systems biology. A fundamental problem for these Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (SCRNs) is to…
In this paper, we first propose a Bayesian neighborhood selection method to estimate Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs). We show the graph selection consistency of this method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model…
Current approaches for modeling discrete-valued outcomes associated with spatially-dependent areal units incur computational and theoretical challenges, especially in the Bayesian setting when full posterior inference is desired. As an…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
Multivariable parametric models are essential for optimizing the performance of high-tech systems. The main objective of this paper is to develop an identification strategy that provides accurate parametric models for complex multivariable…