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Related papers: Optimising Inflationary Features the Bayesian Way

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Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-04 James T. Wilson , Frank Hutter , Marc Peter Deisenroth

In this paper, I proof that Importance Sampling estimates based on dependent sample sets are consistent under certain conditions. This can be used to reduce variance in Bayesian Models with factorizing likelihoods, using sample sets that…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-03 Ingmar Schuster

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of sample-efficient global optimization methods, where a probabilistic model conditioned on previous observations is used to determine future evaluations via the optimization of an acquisition function.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Eric Hans Lee , David Eriksson , Bolong Cheng , Michael McCourt , David Bindel

We calculate the Bayesian evidences for a class of Ekpyrotic universe models, and compare with a model of single field inflation with a Higgs-type potential. Combining parsimony and observational constraints, this gives us a systematic way…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-13 Joseph Wraga , David M. Goldberg

Theory testing in the physical sciences has been revolutionized in recent decades by Bayesian approaches to probability theory. Here, I will consider Bayesian approaches to theory extensions, that is, theories like inflation which aim to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-04-07 Luke A. Barnes

We propose a method for optimal Bayesian filtering with deterministic particles. In order to avoid particle degeneration, the filter step is not performed at once. Instead, the particles progressively flow from prior to posterior. This is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Uwe D. Hanebeck

Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-22 Layne C. Price , Hiranya V. Peiris , Jonathan Frazer , Richard Easther

The partially observable constrained optimization problems (POCOPs) impede data-driven optimization techniques since an infeasible solution of POCOPs can provide little information about the objective as well as the constraints. We endeavor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Shengbo Wang , Ke Li

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-14 Florent Leclercq

Importance sampling algorithms are discussed in detail, with an emphasis on implicit sampling, and applied to data assimilation via particle filters. Implicit sampling makes it possible to use the data to find high-probability samples at…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-02 Alexandre J. Chorin , Fei Lu , Robert N. Miller , Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-13 Christian P. Robert , Darren Wraith

A novel formalism for Bayesian learning in the context of complex inference models is proposed. The method is based on the use of the Stationary Fokker--Planck (SFP) approach to sample from the posterior density. Stationary Fokker--Planck…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-26 Arturo Berrones

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-17 Isidro Gómez-Vargas , J. Alberto Vázquez

Constraining inflationary models with high precision bispectra across broad parameter ranges is a challenging task, requiring intensive computations at all stages, first, predicting the primordial inflation bispectrum from quantum field…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-29 Bowei Zhang , E. P. S. Shellard , James R. Fergusson

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

The Linac Coherent Light Source changes configurations multiple times per day, necessitating fast tuning strategies to reduce setup time for successive experiments. To this end, we employ a Bayesian approach to transport optics tuning to…

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and iterative algorithms based on topological orders to solve optimization problems with acyclic constraints on a directed graph. The proposed MIP model has a significantly lower number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-02 Young Woong Park , Diego Klabjan

Bayesian optimization is a data-efficient technique that has been shown to be extremely powerful to optimize expensive, black-box, and possibly noisy objective functions. Many applications involve optimizing probabilities and mixtures which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Federico Pavesi , Antonio Candelieri , Noémie Jaquier