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We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Stefano Goria , Levent A. Mengütürk , Murat C. Mengütürk , Berkan Sesen

This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Riccardo Gatto

We present a new method to sample conditioned trajectories of a system evolving under Langevin dynamics, based on Brownian bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end at a certain point (or in a certain region) in space. The bridge…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-08-17 Patrice Koehl , Henri Orland

We propose a sampling-based trajectory optimization methodology for constrained problems. We extend recent works on stochastic search to deal with box control constraints,as well as nonlinear state constraints for discrete dynamical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-13 George I. Boutselis , Ziyi Wang , Evangelos A. Theodorou

Expectations of path integrals of killed stochastic processes play a central role in several applications across physics, chemistry, and finance. Simulation-based evaluation of these functionals is often biased and numerically expensive due…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Henrique B. N. Monteiro , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

We consider particles that are conditioned to initial and final states. The trajectory of these particles is uniquely shaped by the intricate interplay of internal and external sources of randomness. The internal randomness is aptly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-13 Daniel Owusu Adu , Yongxin Chen

This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-24 Benjamin De Bruyne

We propose a method to exactly generate bridge run-and-tumble trajectories that are constrained to start at the origin with a given velocity and to return to the origin after a fixed time with another given velocity. The method extends the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-22 Benjamin De Bruyne , Satya N. Majumdar , Gregory Schehr

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Christoffer R. Heckman , Ira B. Schwartz

Stochastic bridges are commonly used to impute missing data with a lower sampling rate to generate data with a higher sampling rate, while preserving key properties of the dynamics involved in an unbiased way. While the generation of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-02 Andrew Schaug , Harish Chandra

We calculate the probabilities to find systems of reacting particles in states which largely deviate from typical behavior. The rare event statistics is obtained from the master equation which describes the dynamics of the probability…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-08-02 Andreas Mühlbacher , Thomas Guhr

We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-07 Guillaume Le Treut , Sarah Ancheta , Greg Huber , Henri Orland , David Yllanes

We propose a novel stochastic method to exactly generate Brownian paths conditioned to start at an initial point and end at a given final point during a fixed time $t_{f}$. These paths are weighted with a probability given by the overdamped…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Satya N. Majumdar , Henri Orland

Learning-based methodologies increasingly find applications in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving and medical robotics. Due to the rare nature of dangerous events, real-world testing is prohibitively expensive and unscalable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Aman Sinha , Matthew O'Kelly , Russ Tedrake , John Duchi

We present a general mathematical framework for trajectory stratification for simulating rare events. Trajectory stratification involves decomposing trajectories of the underlying process into fragments limited to restricted regions of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-11-15 Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Jeremy O. B. Tempkin , Brian Van Koten , Jonathan Weare

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-10-16 Jorge C. Leitao , Joao M. Viana Parente Lopes , Eduardo G. Altmann

Many processes in nature such as conformal changes in biomolecules and clusters of interacting particles, genetic switches, mechanical or electromechanical oscillators with added noise, and many others are modeled using stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-13 Jiaxin Yuan , Amar Shah , Channing Bentz , Maria Cameron

We present a new method, Non-Stationary Forward Flux Sampling, that allows efficient simulation of rare events in both stationary and non-stationary stochastic systems. The method uses stochastic branching and pruning to achieve uniform…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-03 Nils B. Becker , Rosalind J. Allen , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

We propose and test a method to interpolate sparsely sampled signals by a stochastic process with a broad range of spatial and/or temporal scales. To this end, we extend the notion of a fractional Brownian bridge, defined as fractional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-05 J. Friedrich , S. Gallon , A. Pumir , R. Grauer
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