Related papers: The Volatility of Returns and Variable Strategies
We study a simple adaptive model in the framework of an N -player normal form game. The model consists of a repeated game where the players only know their own action space and their own payoff scored at each stage, not those of the other…
We present a couple of adaptive learning models of poker-like games, by means of which we show how bluffing strategies emerge very naturally, and can also be rational and evolutively stable. Despite their very simple learning algorithms,…
We consider a 3-player game in the normal form, in which each player has two actions. We assume that the game is symmetric and repeated infinitely many times. At each stage players make their choices knowing only the average payoffs from…
Various adaptive randomization procedures (adaptive designs) have been proposed to clinical trials. This paper discusses several broad families of procedures, such as the play-the-winner rule and Markov chain model, randomized…
We introduce a new class of games where each player's aim is to randomise her strategic choices in order to affect the other players' expectations aside from her own. The way each player intends to exert this influence is expressed through…
We introduce and analyze a variation of the Bertrand game in which the revenue is shared between two players. This game models situations in which one economic agent can provide goods/services to consumers either directly or through an…
The paper studies properties of functional dependencies between strategies of players in Nash equilibria of multi-player strategic games. The main focus is on the properties of functional dependencies in the context of a fixed dependency…
We develop a systematic approach to quantum probability as a theory of rational betting in quantum gambles. In these games of chance the agent is betting in advance on the outcomes of several (finitely many) incompatible measurements. One…
We discuss stochastic dynamics of populations of individuals playing games. Our models possess two evolutionarily stable strategies: an efficient one, where a population is in a state with the maximal payoff (fitness) and a risk-dominant…
The subject of this paper is a variation of a blackjack game, mainly popular in some parts of Europe where it is known as einz (in German slang: one). We describe the rules of this game, indicate its main characteristics, give some…
The paper studies properties of functional dependencies between strategies of players in Nash equilibria of multi-player strategic games. The main focus is on the properties of functional dependencies in the context of a fixed dependency…
The game theory techniques are used to find the equilibrium of a market. Game theory refers to the ways in which strategic interactions among economic agents produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those agents,…
I describe a method for estimating agents' perceived returns to investments that relies on cross-sectional data containing binary choices and prices, where prices may be imperfectly known to agents. This method identifies the scale of…
It is known that a player in a noncooperative game can benefit by publicly restricting his possible moves before play begins. We show that, more generally, a player may benefit by publicly committing to pay an external party an amount that…
We extend the projective covariant bookmaker's bets model to the forecasting gamblers case. The probability of correctness of forecasts shifts probabilities of branching. The formula for the shift of probabilities leads to the velocity…
This paper presents a wp-style calculus for obtaining expectations on the outcomes of (mutually) recursive probabilistic programs. We provide several proof rules to derive one-- and two--sided bounds for such expectations, and show the…
In this paper we introduce a qualitative decision and game theory based on belief (B) and desire (D) rules. We show that a group of agents acts as if it is maximizing achieved joint goals.
Studying Binomial and Gaussian return dynamics in discrete time, we show how excess volatility can be traded to create growth. We test our results on real world data to confirm the observed model phenomena while also highlighting implicit…
We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of…
We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using…