Related papers: Power of the Crowd
The method of Damage Spreading was used to simulate the influence that a single persons' change of opionion has on the consensus opinion built up in a population if one assumes opinions to form according to the Sznajd Model. The results…
We present a toy model of opinion spreading in a society which combines a self-reinforcing mechanism with diffusion. The relative strength of these two mechanisms - called the affectability of the system - is a free parameter of the model.…
In this study, we build on previous research to understand the conditions within which the Wisdom of the Crowd (WoC) improves or worsens as a result of showing individuals the predictions of their peers. Our main novel contributions are: 1)…
This note defines a notion of multiplicity for nodes in a rooted tree and presents an asymptotic calculation of the maximum multiplicity over all leaves in a Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree with critical offspring distribution $\xi$,…
We show how the quality of decisions based on the aggregated opinions of the crowd can be conveniently studied using a sample of individual responses to a standard IQ questionnaire. We aggregated the responses to the IQ questionnaire using…
We introduce and study a novel majority-based opinion diffusion model. Consider a graph $G$, which represents a social network. Assume that initially a subset of nodes, called seed nodes or early adopters, are colored either black or white,…
Pull voting is a classic method to reach consensus among $n$ vertices with differing opinions in a distributed network: each vertex at each step takes on the opinion of a random neighbour. This method, however, suffers from two drawbacks.…
Consider an election where N seats are distributed among parties with proportions p_1,...,p_m of the votes. We study, for the common divisor and quota methods, the asymptotic distribution, and in particular the mean, of the seat excess of a…
We consider the decentralized binary hypothesis testing problem on trees of bounded degree and increasing depth. For a regular tree of depth t and branching factor k>=2, we assume that the leaves have access to independent and identically…
We consider the following multi--level opinion spreading model on networks. Initially, each node gets a weight from the set [0..k-1], where such a weight stands for the individuals conviction of a new idea or product. Then, by proceeding to…
We introduce a 2-state opinion dynamics model where agents evolve by majority rule. In each update, a group of agents is specified whose members then all adopt the local majority state. In the mean-field limit, where a group consists of…
Every day, we judge the probability of propositions. When we communicate graded confidence (e.g. "I am 90% sure"), we enable others to gauge how much weight to attach to our judgment. Ideally, people should share their judgments to reach…
We study the process of opinion formation in an Ising social network of scientific collaborations. The network is undirected. An Ising spin is associated with each network node being oriented up (red) or down (blue). Certain nodes carry…
Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a…
The Condorcet Jury Theorem or the Miracle of Aggregation are frequently invoked to ensure the competence of some aggregate decision-making processes. In this article we explore an estimation of the prior probability of the thesis predicted…
We discuss the process of opinion formation in a completely homogeneous, democratic population using a class of probabilistic cellular automata models with two absorbing states. Each individual can have one of two opinions that can change…
We investigate opinion spreading by a threshold model in a situation where the influence of people is heterogeneously distributed. We focus on the response of the average opinion as a function between the trend between out-degree (number of…
In online debates individual arguments support or attack each other, leading to some subset of arguments being considered more relevant than others. However, in large discussions readers are often forced to sample a subset of the arguments…
We analyze the evolution of political organizations using a model in which agents change their opinions via two competing mechanisms. Two agents may interact and reach consensus, and additionally, individual agents may spontaneously change…
Evans defines a notion of what it means for a set B to be polar for a process indexed by a tree. The main result herein is that a tree picked from a Galton-Watson measure whose offspring distribution has mean m and finite variance will…