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I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 Thomas J. Loredo

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Given a multivariate function taking deterministic and uncertain inputs, we consider the problem of estimating a quantile set: a set of deterministic inputs for which the probability that the output belongs to a specific region remains…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-25 Romain Ait Abdelmalek-Lomenech , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

While perception tasks such as visual object recognition and text understanding play an important role in human intelligence, the subsequent tasks that involve inference, reasoning and planning require an even higher level of intelligence.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-06 Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung

The free energy principle, and its corollary active inference, constitute a bio-inspired theory that assumes biological agents act to remain in a restricted set of preferred states of the world, i.e., they minimize their free energy. Under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Pietro Mazzaglia , Tim Verbelen , Ozan Çatal , Bart Dhoedt

In the recent past, psychological stress has been increasingly observed in humans, and early detection is crucial to prevent health risks. Stress detection using on-device deep learning algorithms has been on the rise owing to advancements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-07 Abhijith Ragav , Gautham Krishna Gudur

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Dimitrios Milios , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

An important aspect of Bayesian model selection is how to deal with huge model spaces, since exhaustive enumeration of all the models entertained is unfeasible and inferences have to be based on the very small proportion of models visited.…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-25 Gonzalo Garcia-Donato , Miguel Angel Martinez-Beneito

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

This paper introduces a novel approach to creating adaptive language agents by integrating active inference with large language models (LLMs). While LLMs demonstrate remarkable capabilities, their reliance on static prompts limits…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Rithvik Prakki

Probabilistic approaches for tensor factorization aim to extract meaningful structure from incomplete data by postulating low rank constraints. Recently, variational Bayesian (VB) inference techniques have successfully been applied to large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-01 Beyza Ermis , A. Taylan Cemgil

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a sample-efficient probabilistic numerical method to solve integrals of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, yet so far,active BQ learning schemes focus merely on the integrand itself as information source,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Alexandra Gessner , Javier Gonzalez , Maren Mahsereci

Natural image statistics exhibit hierarchical dependencies across multiple scales. Representing such prior knowledge in non-factorial latent tree models can boost performance of image denoising, inpainting, deconvolution or reconstruction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Young Jun Ko , Matthias Seeger

Bayesian inference offers a principled account of information processing in natural agents. However, it remains an open question how neural mechanisms perform their abstract operations. We investigate a hypothesis where a distributed form…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Sepideh Adamiat , Wouter M. Kouw , Bert de Vries

Location-aware networks will introduce new services and applications for modern convenience, surveillance, and public safety. In this paper, we consider the problem of cooperative localization in a wireless network where the position of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Wenyu Zhang , Bryan Teague , Florian Meyer

Temporal abstraction and efficient planning pose significant challenges in offline reinforcement learning, mainly when dealing with domains that involve temporally extended tasks and delayed sparse rewards. Existing methods typically plan…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Wenhao Li

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-10 Michael A. Chappell , Mark W. Woolrich

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-16 Theofanis Karaletsos

Efficient exploration remains a challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially for those tasks where rewards from environments are sparse. A commonly used approach for exploring such environments is to introduce some "intrinsic"…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Neale Ratzlaff , Qinxun Bai , Li Fuxin , Wei Xu

Network data are increasingly collected along with other variables of interest. Our motivation is drawn from neurophysiology studies measuring brain connectivity networks for a sample of individuals along with their membership to a low or…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-11 Daniele Durante , David B. Dunson
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