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Total probability and Bayes formula are two basic tools for using prior information in the Bayesian statistics. In this paper we introduce an alternative tool for using prior information. This new toold enables us to improve some…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Adel Mohammadpour , Ali Mohammad-Djafari

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Stefano Rinaldi , Gabriele Demasi , Walter Del Pozzo , Otto A. Hannuksela

Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-15 Ivette Raices Cruz , Johan Lindström , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Ullrika Sahlin

This survey covers state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques for the estimation of mixtures. It complements the earlier Marin, Mengersen and Robert (2005) by studying new types of distributions, the multinomial, latent class and t distributions.…

Computation · Statistics 2008-04-16 Kate Lee , Jean-Michel Marin , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian P. Robert

Scoring rules evaluate probabilistic forecasts of an unknown state against the realized state and are a fundamental building block in the incentivized elicitation of information. This paper develops mechanisms for scoring elicited text…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Yifan Wu , Jason Hartline

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Larissa N. A. Martins , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Thais P. Galletti

Updating $\textit{a priori}$ information given some observed data is the core tenet of Bayesian inference. Bayesian transfer learning extends this idea by incorporating information from a related dataset to improve the inference on the…

One of the main goals of mathematical modeling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-22 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

We propose Posterior Bootstrap, a set of algorithms extending Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap, to properly incorporate prior information and address the problem of model misspecification in Bayesian inference. We consider two approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-19 Emilia Pompe

Identifying leading measurement units from a large collection is a common inference task in various domains of large-scale inference. Testing approaches, which measure evidence against a null hypothesis rather than effect magnitude, tend to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Nicholas C. Henderson , Michael A. Newton

Scientific writing builds upon already published papers. Manual identification of publications to read, cite or consider as related papers relies on a researcher's ability to identify fitting keywords or initial papers from which a…

Digital Libraries · Computer Science 2022-09-08 Christin Katharina Kreutz , Ralf Schenkel

Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Jesse Aaron Zinn

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-14 Nicholas Lewis

In this present work, we discuss the Bayesian inference for the bivariate pseudo-exponential distribution. Initially, we assume independent gamma priors and then pseudo-gamma priors for the pseudo-exponential parameters. We are primarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Banoth Veeranna

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-10-06 Evan Piermont

This paper reviews two main types of prediction interval methods under a parametric framework. First, we describe methods based on an (approximate) pivotal quantity. Examples include the plug-in, pivotal, and calibration methods. Then we…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Qinglong Tian , Daniel J. Nordman , William Q. Meeker

Bayesian persuasion, an extension of cheap-talk communication, involves an informed sender committing to a signaling scheme to influence a receiver's actions. Compared to cheap talk, this sender's commitment enables the receiver to verify…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yue Lin , Shuhui Zhu , William A Cunningham , Wenhao Li , Pascal Poupart , Hongyuan Zha , Baoxiang Wang

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-06 Augusto Fasano , Niccolò Anceschi , Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo