English
Related papers

Related papers: Small-noise approximation for Bayesian optimal exp…

200 papers

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-01 Marko Järvenpää , Jukka Corander

In this letter, we consider two sets of observations defined as subspace signals embedded in noise and we wish to analyze the distance between these two subspaces. The latter entails evaluating the angles between the subspaces, an issue…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Olivier Besson , Nicolas Dobigeon , Jean-Yves Tourneret

We propose the approximate Laplace approximation (ALA) to evaluate integrated likelihoods, a bottleneck in Bayesian model selection. The Laplace approximation (LA) is a popular tool that speeds up such computation and equips strong model…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-07 David Rossell , Oriol Abril , Anirban Bhattacharya

We construct importance sampling schemes for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating coefficients. Standard Monte Carlo methods perform poorly for these problems in the small noise limit. With multiscale…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-03 Paul Dupuis , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos , Hui Wang

Cluster sampling is common in survey practice, and the corresponding inference has been predominantly design-based. We develop a Bayesian framework for cluster sampling and account for the design effect in the outcome modeling. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Susanna Makela , Yajuan Si , Andrew Gelman

The objective of Bayesian inference is often to infer, from data, a probability measure for a random variable that can be used as input for Monte Carlo simulation. When datasets for Bayesian inference are small, a principle challenge is…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-29 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

Prior information is often incorporated informally when planning a clinical trial. Here, we present an approach on how to incorporate prior information, such as data from historical clinical trials, into the nuisance parameter based sample…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-08 Tobias Mütze , Heinz Schmidli , Tim Friede

Consider a real-valued function that can only be observed with stochastic noise at a finite set of design points within a Euclidean space. We wish to determine whether there exists a convex function that goes through the true function…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-07-30 Nanjing Jian , Shane G. Henderson

In this paper we study properties of the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution arising in nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. Our work is motivated by Schillings et al. (2020), where it is shown that in such a setting the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Tapio Helin , Remo Kretschmann

Model fitting is possibly the most extended problem in science. Classical approaches include the use of least-squares fitting procedures and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the value of the parameters in the model. However, in recent…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-12 J. Lopez-Santiago , L. Martino , J. Miguez , M. A. Vazquez

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high dimensional models for which only a subset of the model variables are of actual interest. All other variables are just nuisance parameters that one would ideally like to integrate out…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-13 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Miguez

Sparse coding refers to the pursuit of the sparsest representation of a signal in a typically overcomplete dictionary. From a Bayesian perspective, sparse coding provides a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimate of the unknown vector under a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-04 Dror Simon , Jeremias Sulam , Yaniv Romano , Yue M. Lu , Michael Elad

This paper presents a structure-preserving Bayesian approach for learning nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models allowing for statistically-dependent, vector-valued additive and multiplicative measurement noise.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nicholas Galioto , Harsh Sharma , Boris Kramer , Alex Arkady Gorodetsky

The performance of error correction in the surface code can be enhanced by leveraging the knowledge of the noise model for physical qubits. To provide accurate noise information to the decoder in parallel with quantum computation, an…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-04 Takumi Kobori , Synge Todo

Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-19 Masahiro Tanaka

Laplace approximation is a very useful tool in Bayesian inference and it claims a nearly Gaussian behavior of the posterior. \cite{SpLaplace2022} established some rather accurate finite sample results about the quality of Laplace…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Vladimir Spokoiny

When recovering an unknown signal from noisy measurements, the computational difficulty of performing optimal Bayesian MMSE (minimum mean squared error) inference often necessitates the use of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, a special…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-23 Madhu Advani , Surya Ganguli

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-10 Peter I. Frazier