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We describe an approximate statistical model for the sample variance distribution of the non-linear matter power spectrum that can be calibrated from limited numbers of simulations. Our model retains the common assumption of a multivariate…

As in many fields of dynamic modeling, the long runtime of hydrological models hinders Bayesian inference of model parameters from data. By replacing a model with an approximation of its output as a function of input and/or parameters,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-09 David Machac , Peter Reichert , Jörg Rieckermann , Dario Del Giudice , Carlo Albert

Overlapping signals represent one of the major data analysis challenges in next-generation gravitational wave detectors. We leverage Transformers and Normalizing Flows, state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, to address the parameter…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-06 Lucia Papalini , Federico De Santi , Massimiliano Razzano , Ik Siong Heng , Elena Cuoco

Weak gravitational lensing surveys are rapidly becoming important tools to probe directly the mass density fluctuations in the universe and its background dynamics. Earlier studies have shown that it is possible to model the statistics of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 Patrick Valageas , Andrew J. Barber , Dipak Munshi

Catalogs of stellar-mass compact binary systems detected by ground-based gravitational-wave instruments (such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo) will offer insights into the demographics of progenitor systems and the physics guiding…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2018-10-24 Stephen R. Taylor , Davide Gerosa

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference methods yield posterior approximations for simulator models with intractable likelihood. Recently, many works trained neural networks to approximate either the intractable likelihood or the posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-01 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Ritabrata Dutta

Third-generation gravitational-wave detectors will observe up to millions of merging binary black holes. With such a vast dataset, stacking events into population analyses will arguably be more important than analyzing single sources. We…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-03-14 Viola De Renzis , Francesco Iacovelli , Davide Gerosa , Michele Mancarella , Costantino Pacilio

We consider the shape of the posterior distribution to be used when fitting cosmological models to power spectra measured from galaxy surveys. At very large scales, Gaussian posterior distributions in the power do not approximate the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-11-25 Benedict Bahr-Kalus , Will J. Percival , Lado Samushia

Normalizing Flows (NFs) learn invertible mappings between the data and a Gaussian distribution. Prior works usually suffer from two limitations. First, they add random noise to training samples or VAE latents as data augmentation,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Qinyu Zhao , Guangting Zheng , Tao Yang , Rui Zhu , Xingjian Leng , Stephen Gould , Liang Zheng

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Angus Lewis , Antonio Parrella , John Maclean , Andrew J. Black

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Sebastian Ament , Louis C. Tiao , David Eriksson , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

Bayesian inference of nanohertz gravitational-wave background models in pulsar timing array analyses often relies on Gaussian-process interpolators to avoid repeated, computationally expensive strain-spectrum calculations. However,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-16 Shreyas Tiruvaskar , Chris Gordon

Recently developed particle flow algorithms provide an alternative to importance sampling for drawing particles from a posterior distribution, and a number of particle filters based on this principle have been proposed. Samples are drawn…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-01 Pete Bunch , Simon Godsill

Efficient Reinforcement Learning usually takes advantage of demonstration or good exploration strategy. By applying posterior sampling in model-free RL under the hypothesis of GP, we propose Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling Reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-12 Ying Fan , Letian Chen , Yizhou Wang

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories will reach farther into the universe than currently possible, revealing black-hole mergers from early stellar binary systems such as Population III stars, whose properties are currently…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-13 Cailin Plunkett , Matthew Mould , Salvatore Vitale

The Collective Graphical Model (CGM) models a population of independent and identically distributed individuals when only collective statistics (i.e., counts of individuals) are observed. Exact inference in CGMs is intractable, and previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-21 Li-Ping Liu , Daniel Sheldon , Thomas G. Dietterich

If classical algorithms have been successful in reproducing the estimation of expectation values of observables of some quantum circuits using off-the-shelf computing resources, matching the performance of the most advanced quantum devices…

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

A yet undetected class of GW signals is represented by the close encounters between compact objects in highly-eccentric e~1 orbits, that can occur in binary systems formed in dense environments such as globular clusters. The expected…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-26 Federico De Santi , Massimiliano Razzano , Francesco Fidecaro , Luca Muccillo , Lucia Papalini , Barbara Patricelli

Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often inaccurate techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-12-09 Carl-Johan Haster , Ilya Mandel , Will M. Farr