Related papers: Lockdown interventions in SIR model: Is the reprod…
An epidemic carries human and fiscal costs. In the case of imported pandemics, the first-best solution is to restrict national borders to identify and isolate infected individuals. However, when that opportunity is not fully seized and…
The aim of this paper is twofold. On one hand, we strive to give a simpler proof of the optimality of greedy controls when the cost of interventions is control-affine and the dynamics follow a state-constrained controlled SIR model. This is…
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
Game theory has been an effective tool in the control of disease spread and in suggesting optimal policies at both individual and area levels. In this paper, we propose a multi-region SEIR model based on stochastic differential game theory,…
We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are…
SIR models, also with age structure, can be used to describe the evolution of an infective disease. A vaccination campaign influences this dynamics immunizing part of the susceptible individuals, essentially turning them into recovered…
Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…
This paper is concerned with the well-posedness and optimal control problem of a reaction-diffusion system for an epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) mathematical model in which the dynamics develops in a spatially…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model to study the control of…
Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control…
On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
A crucial aspect of managing a public health crisis is to effectively balance prevention and mitigation strategies, while taking their socio-economic impact into account. In particular, determining the influence of different…
This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown…
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) play an important role in the early stage control of COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination is considered to be the inevitable course to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the mechanism, a SVEIR COVID-19…