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Efficient and accurate incident prediction in spatio-temporal systems is critical to minimize service downtime and optimize performance. This work aims to utilize historic data to predict and diagnose incidents using spatio-temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Shreshth Tuli , Matthew R. Wilkinson , Chris Kettell

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Accurate and timely rain prediction is crucial for decision making and is also a challenging task. This paper presents a solution which won the 2 nd prize in the Weather4cast 2022 NeurIPS competition using 3D U-Nets and EarthFormers for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Yang Li , Haiyu Dong , Zuliang Fang , Jonathan Weyn , Pete Luferenko

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

This paper presents the neural network model that was used by the author in the Weather4cast 2021 Challenge Stage 1, where the objective was to predict the time evolution of satellite-based weather data images. The network is based on an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-12 Jussi Leinonen

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4cast 2022 Challenge Stage 2. The goal of the challenge is to forecast future high-resolution rainfall events obtained from ground radar using low-resolution multiband satellite images. We…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Jinyoung Park , Minseok Son , Seungju Cho , Inyoung Lee , Changick Kim

The supply and demand of energy is influenced by meteorological conditions. The relevance of accurate weather forecasts increases as the demand for renewable energy sources increases. The energy providers and policy makers require weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Jesús García Fernández , Ismail Alaoui Abdellaoui , Siamak Mehrkanoon

Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-07-07 Marcin Andrychowicz , Lasse Espeholt , Di Li , Samier Merchant , Alexander Merose , Fred Zyda , Shreya Agrawal , Nal Kalchbrenner

Accurately describing the distribution of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Vitus Benson , Ana Bastos , Christian Reimers , Alexander J. Winkler , Fanny Yang , Markus Reichstein

The majority of real-world processes are spatiotemporal, and the data generated by them exhibits both spatial and temporal evolution. Weather is one of the most essential processes in this domain, and weather forecasting has become a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Shakir Showkat Sofi , Ivan Oseledets

Nowcasting, the short-term prediction of weather, is essential for making timely and weather-dependent decisions. Specifically, precipitation nowcasting aims to predict precipitation at a local level within a 6-hour time frame. This task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Haotian Li , Arno Siebes , Siamak Mehrkanoon

This paper introduces Precipitation Attention-based U-Net (PAUNet), a deep learning architecture for predicting precipitation from satellite radiance data, addressing the challenges of the Weather4cast 2023 competition. PAUNet is a variant…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-01 P. Jyoteeshkumar Reddy , Harish Baki , Sandeep Chinta , Richard Matear , John Taylor

Precipitation nowcasting (short-term forecasting) is still often performed using numerical solvers for physical equations, which are computationally expensive and make limited use of the large volumes of available weather data. Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Samuel van Wonderen , Siamak Mehrkanoon

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

Designing early warning systems for harsh weather and its effects, such as urban flooding or landslides, requires accurate short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of precipitation. Nowcasting is a significant task with several environmental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Christos Kaparakis , Siamak Mehrkanoon

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as signal control and network-level traffic management. In real-world deployments, forecasting models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yue Wang , Areg Karapetyan , Djellel Difallah , Samer Madanat

Climate models (CM) are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the risk of floods and strong precipitation events. However, these numerical simulators have difficulties representing precipitation events accurately, mainly due to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Peter Watson , Yulan He , Ritabrata Dutta

Suspended in the atmosphere are millions of tonnes of mineral dust which interacts with weather and climate. Accurate representation of mineral dust in weather models is vital, yet remains challenging. Large scale weather models use high…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-18 Trish E. Nowak , Andy T. Augousti , Benno I. Simmons , Stefan Siegert

Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 A H M Jakaria , Md Mosharaf Hossain , Mohammad Ashiqur Rahman

We introduce a dynamical spatio-temporal model formalized as a recurrent neural network for forecasting time series of spatial processes, i.e. series of observations sharing temporal and spatial dependencies. The model learns these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-24 Ali Ziat , Edouard Delasalles , Ludovic Denoyer , Patrick Gallinari