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Numerous powerful point process models have been developed to understand temporal patterns in sequential data from fields such as health-care, electronic commerce, social networks, and natural disaster forecasting. In this paper, we develop…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-08-15 Yatao Zhong , Bicheng Xu , Guang-Tong Zhou , Luke Bornn , Greg Mori

Spatio-temporal data are ubiquitous in the agricultural, ecological, and environmental sciences, and their study is important for understanding and predicting a wide variety of processes. One of the difficulties with modeling spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Christopher K. Wikle

We present a deep neural network for a model-free prediction of a chaotic dynamical system from noisy observations. The proposed deep learning model aims to predict the conditional probability distribution of a state variable. The Long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-05 Kyongmin Yeo

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have emerged as the primary framework for predicting sequences of events that occur at irregular time intervals, but their sequential nature can hamper performance for long-horizon forecasts. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Mai Zeng , Florence Regol , Mark Coates

Learning and forecasting stochastic time series is essential in various scientific fields. However, despite the proposals of nonlinear filters and deep-learning methods, it remains challenging to capture nonlinear dynamics from a few noisy…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Christian Donner , Anuj Mishra , Hideaki Shimazaki

A Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) is a stochastic process whose realization is a set of event-time data. MTPP is often used to understand complex dynamics of asynchronous temporal events such as money transaction, social media,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Yujee Song , Donghyun Lee , Rui Meng , Won Hwa Kim

Multiple Object Tracking (MOT) focuses on modeling the relationship of detected objects among consecutive frames and merge them into different trajectories. MOT remains a challenging task as noisy and confusing detection results often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Tao Wang , Kean Chen , Weiyao Lin , John See , Zenghui Zhang , Qian Xu , Xia Jia

Point processes model the distribution of random point sets in mathematical spaces, such as spatial and temporal domains, with applications in fields like seismology, neuroscience, and economics. Existing statistical and machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 David Lüdke , Enric Rabasseda Raventós , Marcel Kollovieh , Stephan Günnemann

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Sylvain Robert , Mikhail Kanevski

We propose a new method for spatio-temporal forecasting on arbitrarily distributed points. Assuming that the observed system follows an unknown partial differential equation, we derive a continuous-time model for the dynamics of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-18 Marten Lienen , Stephan Günnemann

Continuous-time event data are common in applications such as individual behavior data, financial transactions, and medical health records. Modeling such data can be very challenging, in particular for applications with many different types…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Alex Boyd , Robert Bamler , Stephan Mandt , Padhraic Smyth

Modeling neural population dynamics underlying noisy single-trial spiking activities is essential for relating neural observation and behavior. A recent non-recurrent method - Neural Data Transformers (NDT) - has shown great success in…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-13 Trung Le , Eli Shlizerman

Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Nazanin Mehrasa , Ruizhi Deng , Mohamed Osama Ahmed , Bo Chang , Jiawei He , Thibaut Durand , Marcus Brubaker , Greg Mori

In this paper, we address the issue of modeling and estimating changes in the state of the spatio-temporal dynamical systems based on a sequence of observations like video frames. Traditional numerical simulation systems depend largely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Kun Wang , Hao Wu , Guibin Zhang , Junfeng Fang , Yuxuan Liang , Yuankai Wu , Roger Zimmermann , Yang Wang

We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-12 Yongqing Wang , Shenghua Liu , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Although deep learning-based methods have shown great success in spatiotemporal predictive learning, the framework of those models is designed mainly by intuition. How to make spatiotemporal forecasting with theoretical guarantees is still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Tongyi Liang , Han-Xiong Li

The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Yan Shen , Fan Yang , Mingchen Gao , Wen Dong

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

A temporal point process (TPP) is a stochastic process where its realization is a sequence of discrete events in time. Recent work in TPPs model the process using a neural network in a supervised learning framework, where a training set is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Wonho Bae , Mohamed Osama Ahmed , Frederick Tung , Gabriel L. Oliveira

In this paper, we consider the problem of learning prediction models for spatiotemporal physical processes driven by unknown partial differential equations (PDEs). We propose a deep learning framework that learns the underlying dynamics and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-04 Priyabrata Saha , Saibal Mukhopadhyay