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Community detection for time series without prior knowledge poses an open challenge within complex networks theory. Traditional approaches begin by assessing time series correlations and maximizing modularity under diverse null models.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Marco Gregnanin , Johannes De Smedt , Giorgio Gnecco , Maurizio Parton

Recognizing subtle historical patterns is central to modeling and forecasting problems in time series analysis. Here we introduce and develop a new approach to quantify deviations in the underlying hidden generators of observed data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-09 Yi Huang , Ishanu Chattopadhyay

This paper addresses the problem of segmenting a time-series with respect to changes in the mean value or in the variance. The first case is when the time data is modeled as a sequence of independent and normal distributed random variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-11-28 Bo Wahlberg , Cristian R. Rojas , Mariette Annergren

We propose a difference-based nonparametric methodology for the estimation and inference of the time-varying auto-covariance functions of a locally stationary time series when it is contaminated by a complex trend with both abrupt and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Yan Cui , Michael Levine , Zhou Zhou

We consider the problem of detecting a change point in a sequence of mean functions from a functional time series. We propose an $L^1$ norm based methodology and establish its theoretical validity both for classical and for relevant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-13 Patrick Bastian

The generative adversarial networks (GANs) have recently been applied to estimating the distribution of independent and identically distributed data, and have attracted a lot of research attention. In this paper, we use the blocking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Jianya Lu , Yingjun Mo , Zhijie Xiao , Lihu Xu , Qiuran Yao

A change point problem occurs in many statistical applications. If there exist change points in a model, it is harmful to make a statistical analysis without any consideration of the existence of the change points and the results derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-24 Xiaoping Shi , Yuehua Wu , Baisuo Jin

Large volumes of spatiotemporal data, characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, may experience structural changes over time. Unlike traditional change-point problems, each sequence in this context consists of function-valued…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Fengyi Song , Decai Liang , Changliang Zou

We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-17 Lawrence Bardwell , Paul Fearnhead

This paper addresses the problem of segmenting a stream of graph signals: we aim to detect changes in the mean of a multivariate signal defined over the nodes of a known graph. We propose an offline method that relies on the concept of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Alejandro de la Concha , Nicolas Vayatis , Argyris Kalogeratos

Change Point Detection (CPD) methods identify the times associated with changes in the trends and properties of time series data in order to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. For instance, detecting the changes and anomalies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Shohreh Deldari , Daniel V. Smith , Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim

Changepoint detection is commonly formulated by minimizing the sum of in-sample losses to quantify the model's overall fit. However, for flexible modeling procedures -- especially those involving high-dimensional parameter spaces or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Chengde Qian , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

We study change point detection and localization for univariate data in fully nonparametric settings in which, at each time point, we acquire an i.i.d. sample from an unknown distribution. We quantify the magnitude of the distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-27 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

We investigate the online detection of changepoints in the distribution of a sequence of observations using degenerate U-statistic-type processes. We study weighted versions of: an ordinary, CUSUM-type scheme, a Page-CUSUM-type scheme, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Cooper Boniece , Lajos Horvath , Lorenzo Trapani

The continued digitization of societal processes translates into a proliferation of time series data that cover applications such as fraud detection, intrusion detection, and energy management, where anomaly detection is often essential to…

Domain generalization methods aim to learn models robust to domain shift with data from a limited number of source domains and without access to target domain samples during training. Popular domain alignment methods for domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Wenyu Zhang , Mohamed Ragab , Chuan-Sheng Foo

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 Jeffrey D. Scargle , Jay P. Norris , Brad Jackson , James Chiang

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-16 Sean Jewell , Paul Fearnhead , Daniela Witten

Time series data can be subject to changes in the underlying process that generates them and, because of these changes, models built on old samples can become obsolete or perform poorly. In this work, we present a way to incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-27 Jesus Antonanzas , Marta Arias , Albert Bifet

A novel approach to quantile estimation in multivariate linear regression models with change-points is proposed: the change-point detection and the model estimation are both performed automatically, by adopting either the quantile fused…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-10 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matus Maciak