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In observational studies, the propensity score plays a central role in estimating causal effects of interest. The inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used for this purpose. However, if the propensity score model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Tomoyuki Nakagawa

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

Online platforms regularly conduct randomized experiments to understand how changes to the platform causally affect various outcomes of interest. However, experimentation on online platforms has been criticized for having, among other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Smitha Milli , Luca Belli , Moritz Hardt

Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Estimating causal effects from observational data is a central problem in many domains. A general approach is to balance covariates with weights such that the distribution of the data mimics randomization. We present generalized balancing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-02 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Using observational data to estimate the effect of a treatment is a powerful tool for decision-making when randomized experiments are infeasible or costly. However, observational data often yields biased estimates of treatment effects,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-03 Chad Hazlett

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is meaningful and practical in healthcare. Existing work mainly relies on the strong ignorability assumption that no hidden confounders exist, which may lead to bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Ruoqi Liu , Changchang Yin , Ping Zhang

Random-effects meta-analyses of observational studies can produce biased estimates if the synthesized studies are subject to unmeasured confounding. We propose sensitivity analyses quantifying the extent to which unmeasured confounding of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-10 Maya B. Mathur , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Propensity scores are commonly used to reduce the confounding bias in non-randomized observational studies for estimating the average treatment effect. An important assumption underlying this approach is that all confounders that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Youfei Yu , Jiacong Du , Min Zhang , Zhenke Wu , Andrew M. Ryan , Bhramar Mukherjee

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

Randomized A/B tests within online learning platforms represent an exciting direction in learning sciences. With minimal assumptions, they allow causal effect estimation without confounding bias and exact statistical inference even in small…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Adam C. Sales , Ethan B. Prihar , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch , Neil T. Heffernan

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Ying Jin , José Zubizarreta

Using offline observational data for policy evaluation and learning allows decision-makers to evaluate and learn a policy that connects characteristics and interventions. Most existing literature has focused on either discrete treatment…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Cheuk Hang Leung , Yiyan Huang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

When using the propensity score method to estimate the treatment effects, it is important to select the covariates to be included in the propensity score model. The inclusion of covariates unrelated to the outcome in the propensity score…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Takehiro Shoji , Jun Tsuchida , Hiroshi Yadohisa

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular propensity score (PS)-based approach to estimate causal effects in observational studies at risk of confounding bias. A major issue when estimating the PS is the presence of…

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