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A Markov tree is a probabilistic graphical model for a random vector indexed by the nodes of an undirected tree encoding conditional independence relations between variables. One possible limit distribution of partial maxima of samples from…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Stefka Asenova , Gildas Mazo , Johan Segers

Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-25 Shuang Hu , Zuoxiang Peng , Johan Segers

When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

We study conditional independence relationships for random networks and their interplay with exchangeability. We show that, for finitely exchangeable network models, the empirical subgraph densities are maximum likelihood estimates of their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Steffen Lauritzen , Alessandro Rinaldo , Kayvan Sadeghi

The H\"usler-Reiss distribution describes the limit of the pointwise maxima of a bivariate normal distribution. This distribution is defined by a single parameter, $\lambda$. We provide asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Hank Flury , Jan Hannig , Richard Smith

Conditional independence, graphical models and sparsity are key notions for parsimonious statistical models and for understanding the structural relationships in the data. The theory of multivariate and spatial extremes describes the risk…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 Sebastian Engelke , Adrien S. Hitz

A new family of tree-structured Markov random fields for a vector of discrete counting random variables is introduced. According to the characteristics of the family, the marginal distributions of the Markov random fields are all Poisson…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-20 Benjamin Côté , Hélène Cossette , Etienne Marceau

We derive the limiting distribution for the largest eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix for a stochastic blockmodel graph when the number of vertices tends to infinity. We show that, in the limit, these eigenvalues are jointly multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-02 Minh Tang

We introduce the concept of geometric extremal graphical models, which are defined through the gauge function of the limit set obtained from suitably scaled random vectors in light-tailed margins. For block graphs, we prove results relating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jennifer Wadsworth

We investigate random connected graphs from a block-stable class whose distribution is weighted based on the number of $2$-connected components, or blocks. This includes the class of planar graphs. For this, we develop a notion of a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Mihyun Kang , Zéphyr Salvy , Ronen Wdowinski

The severity of multivariate extreme events is driven by the dependence between the largest marginal observations. The H\"usler-Reiss distribution is a versatile model for this extremal dependence, and it is usually parameterized by a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Manuel Hentschel , Sebastian Engelke , Johan Segers

Analysis of the rare and extreme values through statistical modeling is an important issue in economical crises, climate forecasting, and risk management of financial portfolios. Extreme value theory provides the probability models needed…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-15 Ali Reza Fotouhi

The successive discrete structures generated by a sequential algorithm from random input constitute a Markov chain that may exhibit long term dependence on its first few input values. Using examples from random graph theory and search…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Rudolf Grübel

Colored graphical models provide a parsimonious approach to modeling high-dimensional data by exploiting symmetries in the model parameters. In this work, we introduce the notion of coloring for extremal graphical models on multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Frank Röttger , Jane Ivy Coons , Alexandros Grosdos

We introduce a new random graph model motivated by biological questions relating to speciation. This random graph is defined as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain on the space of graphs on $\{1, \ldots, n\}$. The dynamics of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-24 François Bienvenu , Florence Débarre , Amaury Lambert

A Markov tree is a random vector indexed by the nodes of a tree whose distribution is determined by the distributions of pairs of neighbouring variables and a list of conditional independence relations. Upon an assumption on the tails of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-05 Johan Segers

Graphical models with heavy-tailed factors can be used to model extremal dependence or causality between extreme events. In a Bayesian network, variables are recursively defined in terms of their parents according to a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Johan Segers , Stefka Asenova

Markov random fields area popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-01 Linus Hamilton , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

"Mixed Data" comprising a large number of heterogeneous variables (e.g. count, binary, continuous, skewed continuous, among other data types) are prevalent in varied areas such as genomics and proteomics, imaging genetics, national…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-04 Eunho Yang , Pradeep Ravikumar , Genevera I. Allen , Yulia Baker , Ying-Wooi Wan , Zhandong Liu
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