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We reinterpret multiplicative noise in neural networks as auxiliary random variables that augment the approximate posterior in a variational setting for Bayesian neural networks. We show that through this interpretation it is both efficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-14 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

In this research, a functional time series model was introduced to predict future realizations of river flow time series. The proposed model was constructed based on a functional time series's correlated lags and the essential exogenous…

Applications · Statistics 2021-04-27 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang , Zaher Mundher Yaseen

Predictions in the form of probability distributions are crucial for effective decision-making. Quantile regression enables such predictions within spatial prediction settings that aim to create improved precipitation datasets by merging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Nikolaos Doulamis , Anastasios Doulamis

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Recent methods in quantile regression have adopted a classification perspective to handle challenges posed by heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data by quantizing outputs into fixed bins. Although these regression-as-classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Batuhan Cengiz , Halil Faruk Karagoz , Tufan Kumbasar

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Xing Yan , Yonghua Su , Wenxuan Ma

Autoregressive cokriging models have been widely used to emulate multiple computer models with different levels of fidelity. The dependence structures are modeled via Gaussian processes at each level of fidelity, where covariance structures…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-03 Pulong Ma

Through examples of coordinate and probability transformation between different distributions, the basic principle of normalizing flow is introduced in a simple and concise manner. From the perspective of the distribution of random variable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-22 Hongjun Zhang

Advances in computational science offer a principled pipeline for predictive modeling of cardiovascular flows and aspire to provide a valuable tool for monitoring, diagnostics and surgical planning. Such models can be nowadays deployed on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Georgios Kissas , Yibo Yang , Eileen Hwuang , Walter R. Witschey , John A. Detre , Paris Perdikaris

Normalizing flows have shown great promise for modelling flexible probability distributions in a computationally tractable way. However, whilst data is often naturally described on Riemannian manifolds such as spheres, torii, and hyperbolic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-10 Emile Mathieu , Maximilian Nickel

A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Shih-Kang Chao , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Ming Yuan

Predicting the future behavior of human road users is an important aspect for the development of risk-aware autonomous vehicles. While many models have been developed towards this end, effectively capturing and predicting the variability…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Anna Mészáros , Julian F. Schumann , Javier Alonso-Mora , Arkady Zgonnikov , Jens Kober

Flow-based generative models have recently shown impressive performance for conditional generation tasks, such as text-to-image generation. However, current methods transform a general unimodal noise distribution to a specific mode of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Noam Issachar , Mohammad Salama , Raanan Fattal , Sagie Benaim

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are flexible explicit generative models that have been shown to accurately model complex real-world data distributions. However, their invertibility constraint imposes limitations on data distributions that reside on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-19 Janis Postels , Martin Danelljan , Luc Van Gool , Federico Tombari

We present a framework for learning probability distributions on topologically non-trivial manifolds, utilizing normalizing flows. Current methods focus on manifolds that are homeomorphic to Euclidean space, enforce strong structural priors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Dimitris Kalatzis , Johan Ziruo Ye , Alison Pouplin , Jesper Wohlert , Søren Hauberg

In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-13 Maarten Bieshaar , Jens Schreiber , Stephan Vogt , André Gensler , Bernhard Sick

Traditional discriminative computer vision relies predominantly on static projections, mapping input features to outputs in a single computational step. Although efficient, this paradigm lacks the iterative refinement and robustness…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Om Govind Jha , Manoj Bamniya , Ayon Borthakur

Artificial intelligence techniques are considered an effective means to accelerate flow field simulations. However, current deep learning methods struggle to achieve generalization to flow field resolutions while ensuring computational…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-15 Kuijun Zuo , Zhengyin Ye , Linyang Zhu , Xianxu Yuan , Weiwei Zhang

Safe and reliable state estimation techniques are a critical component of next-generation robotic systems. Agents in such systems must be able to reason about the intentions and trajectories of other agents for safe and efficient motion…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Harrison Delecki , Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer