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Learned models of the environment provide reinforcement learning (RL) agents with flexible ways of making predictions about the environment. In particular, models enable planning, i.e. using more computation to improve value functions or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Gregory Farquhar , Kate Baumli , Zita Marinho , Angelos Filos , Matteo Hessel , Hado van Hasselt , David Silver

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

We propose a reinforcement learning framework for discrete environments in which an agent makes both strategic and tactical decisions. The former manifests itself through the use of value function, while the latter is powered by a tree…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Piotr Miłoś , Łukasz Kuciński , Konrad Czechowski , Piotr Kozakowski , Maciek Klimek

An artificial intelligence (AI) model can be viewed as a function that maps inputs to outputs in high-dimensional spaces. Once designed and well trained, the AI model is applied for inference. However, even optimized AI models can produce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Sha Hu

This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Dan Ley , Leonard Tang , Matthew Nazari , Hongjin Lin , Suraj Srinivas , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same…

We present machine-learning-based approaches for determining the \emph{degree} of inconsistency -- which is a numerical value -- for propositional logic knowledge bases. Specifically, we present regression- and neural-based models that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Sven Weinzierl , Carl Cora

Reinforcement learning systems are often concerned with balancing exploration of untested actions against exploitation of actions that are known to be good. The benefit of exploration can be estimated using the classical notion of Value of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Richard Dearden , Nir Friedman , David Andre

Language models can learn a range of capabilities from unsupervised training on text corpora. However, to solve a particular problem (such as text summarization) it is typically necessary to fine-tune them on a task-specific dataset. It is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Adam Gleave , Geoffrey Irving

In the study of complex systems, evaluating physical observables often requires sampling representative configurations via Monte Carlo techniques. These methods rely on repeated evaluations of the system's energy and force fields, which can…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-07-02 Dimitrios Tzivrailis , Alberto Rosso , Eiji Kawasaki

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

An effective approach to exploration in reinforcement learning is to rely on an agent's uncertainty over the optimal policy, which can yield near-optimal exploration strategies in tabular settings. However, in non-tabular settings that…

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates

We revisit the role of instrumental value as a driver of adaptive behavior. In active inference, instrumental or extrinsic value is quantified by the information-theoretic surprisal of a set of observations measuring the extent to which…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-10-14 Alvaro Ovalle , Simon M. Lucas

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Ailin Deng , Miao Xiong , Bryan Hooi

In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for planning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Zaheer Abbas , Samuel Sokota , Erin J. Talvitie , Martha White

Deep Learning sets the state-of-the-art in many challenging tasks showing outstanding performance in a broad range of applications. Despite its success, it still lacks robustness hindering its adoption in medical applications. Modeling…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Agnieszka Tomczack , Nassir Navab , Shadi Albarqouni

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

In model-based reinforcement learning, simulated experiences from the learned model are often treated as equivalent to experience from the real environment. However, when the model is inaccurate, it can catastrophically interfere with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Erin J. Talvitie , Zilei Shao , Huiying Li , Jinghan Hu , Jacob Boerma , Rory Zhao , Xintong Wang

Foundation models have become a dominant paradigm in machine learning, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks through large-scale pretraining. However, these models often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mehmet Ozgur Turkoglu , Dominik J. Mühlematter , Alexander Becker , Konrad Schindler , Helge Aasen
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