Related papers: A Bayesian take on option pricing with Gaussian pr…
Quantization algorithms have been successfully adopted to option pricing in finance thanks to the high convergence rate of the numerical approximation. In particular, very recently, recursive marginal quantization has been proven to be a…
We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…
Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…
We introduce the Local Occupied Volatility (LOV) model that sits between Dupire's local volatility and fully path-dependent dynamics. By design, the LOV model ensures automatic calibration to European vanilla options, while offering the…
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate…
This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…
For personalized ranking models, the well-calibrated probability of an item being preferred by a user has great practical value. While existing work shows promising results in image classification, probability calibration has not been much…
In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…
We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…
In this paper, we price European Call three different option pricing models, where the volatility is dynamically changing i.e. non constant. In stochastic volatility (SV) models for option pricing a closed form approximation technique is…
As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…
This paper is concerned with nonlinear filtering of the coefficients in asset price models with stochastic volatility. More specifically, we assume that the asset price process $ S=(S_{t})_{t\geq0} $ is given by \[…
This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…
We introduce a new approach for the numerical pricing of American options. The main idea is to choose a finite number of suitable excessive functions (randomly) and to find the smallest majorant of the gain function in the span of these…
We develop a Bayesian framework for the efficient estimation of impulse responses using Local Projections (LPs) with instrumental variables. It accommodates multiple shocks and instruments, accounts for autocorrelation in multi-step…
A Bayesian analytics framework that precisely quantifies uncertainty offers a significant advance for financial risk management. We develop an integrated approach that consistently enhances the handling of risk in market volatility…
A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…
We model the price of a stock via a Lang\'{e}vin equation with multi-dimensional fluctuations coupled in the price and in time. We generalize previous models in that we assume that the fluctuations conditioned on the time step are compound…
Local stochastic volatility refers to a popular model class in applied mathematical finance that allows for "calibration-on-the-fly", typically via a particle method, derived from a formal McKean-Vlasov equation. Well-posedness of this…
The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…