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The interdependence between nodes in graphs is key to improve class predictions on nodes and utilized in approaches like Label Propagation (LP) or in Graph Neural Networks (GNN). Nonetheless, uncertainty estimation for non-independent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Maximilian Stadler , Bertrand Charpentier , Simon Geisler , Daniel Zügner , Stephan Günnemann

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-03 Hao Wang , Xingjian Shi , Dit-Yan Yeung

This article tackles the old problem of prediction via a nonparametric transformation model (NTM) in a new Bayesian way. Estimation of NTMs is known challenging due to model unidentifiability though appealing because of its robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Chong Zhong , Jin Yang , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu , Zhaohai Li

Checking how well a fitted model explains the data is one of the most fundamental parts of a Bayesian data analysis. However, existing model checking methods suffer from trade-offs between being well-calibrated, automated, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Jiawei Li , Jonathan H. Huggins

We propose a general robust prediction framework, termed conformal-projective prediction (CPP), that integrates Bayesian predictive modeling with ideas from conformal prediction. Rather than assessing conformity through residual-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Arkaprava Roy , Malay Ghosh

Observational healthcare data offer the potential to estimate causal effects of medical products on a large scale. However, the confidence intervals and p-values produced by observational studies only account for random error and fail to…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-02 Jami J. Mulgrave , David Madigan , George Hripcsak

Being in the era of big data, modeling and prediction of count data have become significantly important in many fields including health, finance, social, etc. Although linear Poisson regression has been widely used to model count and rate…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-25 Hansapani Rodrigo , Chris Tsokos

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

Which neural networks are similar is a fundamental question for both machine learning and neuroscience. Here, it is proposed to base comparisons on the predictive distributions of linear readouts from intermediate representations. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Heiko H. Schütt

Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Julyan Arbel , Konstantinos Pitas , Mariia Vladimirova , Vincent Fortuin

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

This paper describes and discusses Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). The paper showcases a few different applications of them for classification and regression problems. BNNs are comprised of a Probabilistic Model and a Neural Network. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-31 Vikram Mullachery , Aniruddh Khera , Amir Husain

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

Challenging research in various fields has driven a wide range of methodological advances in variable selection for regression models with high-dimensional predictors. In comparison, selection of nonlinear functions in models with additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-05 Fabian Scheipl , Thomas Kneib , Ludwig Fahrmeir

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely {used in supervised learning} due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Jiayu Huang , Yutian Pang , Yongming Liu , Hao Yan

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

The following zero-sum game between nature and a statistician blends Bayesian methods with frequentist methods such as p-values and confidence intervals. Nature chooses a posterior distribution consistent with a set of possible priors. At…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-19 David R. Bickel

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters and utilize posterior samples for Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in prediction. However, despite the crucial role of flatness in the loss landscape in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Sungjun Lim , Jeyoon Yeom , Sooyon Kim , Hoyoon Byun , Jinho Kang , Yohan Jung , Jiyoung Jung , Kyungwoo Song

Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Philipp Wagner , Xinyang Wu , Marco F. Huber