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This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-07 Xueheng Shi , Colin Gallagher , Robert Lund , Rebecca Killick

We investigate the signal reconstruction performance of sparse linear regression in the presence of noise when piecewise continuous nonconvex penalties are used. Among such penalties, we focus on the SCAD penalty. The contributions of this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-08 Tomoyuki Obuchi , Ayaka Sakata

Common cross-validation (CV) methods like k-fold cross-validation or Monte-Carlo cross-validation estimate the predictive performance of a learner by repeatedly training it on a large portion of the given data and testing on the remaining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Felix Mohr , Jan N. van Rijn

We study the mean-squared error of $k$-fold cross-validation as a risk estimator, with particular emphasis on how its accuracy depends on the number of folds $k$. Despite the widespread use of cross-validation, principled guidance for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

We consider a popular online change-point problem of detecting a transient change in distributions of i.i.d. random variables. For this change-point problem, several change-point procedures are formulated and some advanced results for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-08 Jack Noonan

Super learner algorithm can be applied to combine results of multiple base learners to improve quality of predictions. The default method for verification of super learner results is by nested cross validation. It has been proposed by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Krzysztof Mnich , Agnieszka Kitlas Golińska , Aneta Polewko-Klim , Witold R. Rudnicki

Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for tuning a model with respect to user-selected parameters and for selecting a "best" model. For example, the method of $k$-nearest neighbors requires the user to choose $k$, the number of neighbors,…

Applications · Statistics 2012-03-01 Hui Shen , William J. Welch , Jacqueline M. Hughes-Oliver

Statistical machine learning models should be evaluated and validated before putting to work. Conventional k-fold Monte Carlo Cross-Validation (MCCV) procedure uses a pseudo-random sequence to partition instances into k subsets, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-05 Liang Guo , Jianya Liu , Ruodan Lu

Wavelet thresholding generally assumes independent, identically distributed normal errors when estimating functions in a nonparametric regression setting. VisuShrink and SureShrink are just two of the many common thresholding methods based…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-23 Kelly McGinnity , Roumen Varbanov , Eric Chicken

We study estimator selection and hyper-parameter tuning in off-policy evaluation. Although cross-validation is the most popular method for model selection in supervised learning, off-policy evaluation relies mostly on theory, which provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Matej Cief , Branislav Kveton , Michal Kompan

In traditional k-fold cross-validation, each instance is used ($k-1$) times for training and once for testing, leading to redundancy that lets many instances disproportionately influence the learning phase. We introduce Irredundant $k$-fold…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Jesus S. Aguilar-Ruiz

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Zifeng Zhao , Xiaokai Luo , Zongge Liu , Daren Wang

Mixed-effect models are widely used for the analysis of correlated data such as longitudinal data and repeated measures. In this article, we study an approach to the nonparametric estimation of mixed-effect models. We consider models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Chong Gu , Ping Ma

We introduce a new cross-validation method based on an equicorrelated Gaussian randomization scheme. Our method is well-suited for problems where sample splitting is infeasible, either because the data violate the assumption of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Sifan Liu , Snigdha Panigrahi , Jake A. Soloff

High-dimensional prediction typically comprises two steps: variable selection and subsequent least-squares refitting on the selected variables. However, the standard variable selection procedures, such as the lasso, hinge on tuning…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-07 Didier Chételat , Johannes Lederer , Joseph Salmon

Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on…

In the present paper, we prove a new theorem, resulting in an update formula for linear regression model residuals calculating the exact k-fold cross-validation residuals for any choice of cross-validation strategy without model refitting.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Kristian Hovde Liland , Joakim Skogholt , Ulf Geir Indahl

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique used to estimate generalization error for prediction models. For pipeline modeling algorithms (i.e. modeling procedures with multiple steps), it has been recommended the entire sequence of steps be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-05 Byron C. Jaeger , Nicholas J. Tierney , Noah R. Simon

We consider prediction in multiple studies with potential differences in the relationships between predictors and outcomes. Our objective is to integrate data from multiple studies to develop prediction models for unseen studies. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Boyu Ren , Prasad Patil , Francesca Dominici , Giovanni Parmigiani , Lorenzo Trippa

In machine learning, statistics, econometrics and statistical physics, cross-validation (CV) is used asa standard approach in quantifying the generalisation performance of a statistical model. A directapplication of CV in time-series leads…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-14 Mehmet Süzen , Alper Yegenoglu
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