Related papers: Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound based Adaptive St…
Stochastic volatility models have existed in Option pricing theory ever since the crash of 1987 which violated the Black-Scholes model assumption of constant volatility. Heston model is one such stochastic volatility model that is widely…
In practical nonlinear filtering, the assessment of achievable filtering performance is important. In this paper, we focus on the problem of efficiently approximate the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) in a recursive manner. By using…
The posterior Cram\'er-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) derived in Tichavsk\'y et al., 1998, provides a bound on the mean square error (MSE) obtained with any non-linear state filter. Computing the PCRLB involves solving complex, multi-dimensional…
We develop a novel filtering and estimation procedure for parametric option pricing models driven by general affine jump-diffusions. Our procedure is based on the comparison between an option-implied, model-free representation of the…
This report provides a brief historical evolution of the concepts in the Kalman filtering theory since ancient times to the present. A brief description of the filter equations its aesthetics, beauty, truth, fascinating perspectives and…
This paper studies the optimal state estimation for a dynamic system, whose transfer function can be nonlinear and the input noise can be of arbitrary distribution. Our algorithm differs from the conventional extended Kalman filter (EKF)…
For many nonlinear Bayesian state estimation problems, the posterior recursion is not analytically tractable, leading to algorithms that are influenced by numerical approximation errors. These algorithms depend on parameters that affect the…
Local volatility is a versatile option pricing model due to its state dependent diffusion coefficient. Calibration is, however, non-trivial as it involves both proposing a hypothesis model of the latent function and a method for fitting it…
The real-world applications in signal processing generally involve estimating the system state or parameters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian dynamic systems. The estimation problem may get even more challenging when there are physical…
We study the Extended Kalman Filter in constant dynamics, offering a bayesian perspective of stochastic optimization. We obtain high probability bounds on the cumulative excess risk in an unconstrained setting. In order to avoid any…
Model-based filtering is often carried out while subject to an imperfect model, as learning partially-observable stochastic systems remains a challenge. Recent work on Bayesian inference found that tempering the likelihood or full posterior…
In this work, we present methods for state estimation in continuous-discrete nonlinear systems involving stochastic differential equations. We present the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman filter, and…
Kalman filtering has been traditionally applied in three application areas of estimation, state estimation, parameter estimation (a.k.a. model updating), and dual estimation. However, Kalman filter is often not sufficient when experimenting…
Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion,…
Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…
Nonlinear model predictive control has become a popular approach to deal with highly nonlinear and unsteady state systems, the performance of which can however deteriorate due to unaccounted uncertainties. Model predictive control is…
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman…
In many practical parameter estimation problems, prescreening and parameter selection are performed prior to estimation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a preselected unknown deterministic parameter chosen from a…
This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades of research effort. To…