Related papers: Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroe…

Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…

Discrete automated processes in industrial and cyber-physical systems often exhibit a repetitive structure in which successive repetitions follow a common trajectory while differing in duration, amplitude, and fine-scale dynamics. Such…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…

In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…

We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

Despite the success of Gaussian process based Model Predictive Control (MPC) in robotic control, its applicability scope is greatly hindered by multimodal disturbances that are prevalent in real-world settings. Here we propose a novel…

Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…

Gaussian process latent variable models (GPLVM) are a flexible and non-linear approach to dimensionality reduction, extending classical Gaussian processes to an unsupervised learning context. The Bayesian incarnation of the GPLVM Titsias…

We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian…

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric function estimators. However, their applications are largely limited by the expensive computational cost of the inference procedures. Existing stochastic or distributed synchronous…

The Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model is an ensemble method extensively and successfully used in regression tasks due to its consistently strong predictive performance and its ability to quantify uncertainty. BART combines…

Identifying the active factors that have significant impacts on the output of the complex system is an important but challenging variable selection problem in computer experiments. In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical Gaussian process…

Variational autoencoders (VAE) are a powerful and widely-used class of models to learn complex data distributions in an unsupervised fashion. One important limitation of VAEs is the prior assumption that latent sample representations are…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…