Related papers: Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroe…
Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates…
The Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) is a popular tool for incorporating sparsity into joint multivariate distributions. The G-Wishart distribution, a conjugate prior for precision matrices satisfying general GGM constraints, has now been in…
Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are well-known tools for modeling dependent data with applications in spatial statistics, time series analysis, or econometrics. In this article, we present the R package varycoef that implements estimation,…
For multivariate spatial Gaussian process (GP) models, customary specifications of cross-covariance functions do not exploit relational inter-variable graphs to ensure process-level conditional independence among the variables. This is…
The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…
In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…
This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…
Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…
Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
We develop a fast variational approximation scheme for Gaussian process (GP) regression, where the spectrum of the covariance function is subjected to a sparse approximation. Our approach enables uncertainty in covariance function…
This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…