Related papers: Theoretical Analysis of an XGBoost Framework for P…

In the paper, a problem of forecasting promotion efficiency is raised. The authors propose a new approach, using the gradient boosting method for this task. Six performance indicators are introduced to capture the promotion effect. For each…

Explainable AI (XAI) and interpretable machine learning methods help to build trust in model predictions and derived insights, yet also present a perverse incentive for analysts to manipulate XAI metrics to support pre-specified…

Gradient boosting is a prediction method that iteratively combines weak learners to produce a complex and accurate model. From an optimization point of view, the learning procedure of gradient boosting mimics a gradient descent on a…

Decision making often occurs in the presence of incomplete information, leading to the under- or overestimation of risk. Leveraging the observable information to learn the complete information is called nowcasting. In practice, incomplete…

In this paper, we disclose the statistical behavior of the max-product algorithm configured to solve a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation problem in a network of distributed agents. Specifically, we first build a distributed hypothesis…

Random Forests have been one of the most popular bagging methods in the past few decades, especially due to their success at handling tabular datasets. They have been extensively studied and compared to boosting models, like XGBoost, which…

In this paper, we propose a mathematical formulation for the management of an oil production network as a multistage optimization problem. The reservoir is modeled as a controlled dynamical system by using material balance equations. We use…

Managing stock efficiently remains a core issue in modern logistics, where companies must reconcile cost efficiency with dependable service despite unpredictable market conditions. Conventional models often overlook the direct connection…

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…

For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An…

Boosting is a popular way to derive powerful learners from simpler hypothesis classes. Following previous work (Mason et al., 1999; Friedman, 2000) on general boosting frameworks, we analyze gradient-based descent algorithms for boosting…

We present first results from the use of XGBoost, a highly effective machine learning (ML) method, within the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), an open-source agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate a contemporary sports-betting exchange…

With a novel search algorithm or assortment planning or assortment optimization algorithm that takes into account a Bayesian approach to information updating and two-stage assortment optimization techniques, the current research provides a…

Through a user study in the field of livestock farming, we verify the effectiveness of an XAI framework for video surveillance systems. The systems can be made interpretable by incorporating experts' decision-making processes. AI systems…

Feature selection is an important but challenging task in causal inference for obtaining unbiased estimates of causal quantities. Properly selected features in causal inference not only significantly reduce the time required to implement a…

This paper addresses a novel data science problem, prescriptive price optimization, which derives the optimal price strategy to maximize future profit/revenue on the basis of massive predictive formulas produced by machine learning. The…

Credit card fraud detection remains a critical challenge in financial security, with machine learning models like XGBoost(eXtreme gradient boosting) emerging as powerful tools for identifying fraudulent transactions. However, the inherent…

This paper presents a framework capable of accurately forecasting future sales in the retail industry and classifying the product portfolio according to the expected level of forecasting reliability. The proposed framework, that would be of…

Gradient boosting from the field of statistical learning is widely known as a powerful framework for estimation and selection of predictor effects in various regression models by adapting concepts from classification theory. Current…

Most data for evaluating and training recommender systems is subject to selection biases, either through self-selection by the users or through the actions of the recommendation system itself. In this paper, we provide a principled approach…