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While the choice of prior is one of the most critical parts of the Bayesian inference workflow, recent Bayesian deep learning models have often fallen back on vague priors, such as standard Gaussians. In this review, we highlight the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Vincent Fortuin

Recent work [ 14 ] has introduced a method for prior elicitation that utilizes records of expert decisions to infer a prior distribution. While this method provides a promising approach to eliciting expert uncertainty, it has only been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Julia R. Falconer , Eibe Frank , Devon L. L. Polaschek , Chaitanya Joshi

Bayesian optimisation is a well-known sample-efficient method for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. However when dealing with big search spaces the algorithm goes through several low function value regions before reaching…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-31 Anil Ramachandran , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Cheng Li , Svetha Venkatesh

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Dylan Sam , Rattana Pukdee , Daniel P. Jeong , Yewon Byun , J. Zico Kolter

Bayesian Optimization is methodology used in statistical modelling that utilizes a Gaussian process prior distribution to iteratively update a posterior distribution towards the true distribution of the data. Finding unbiased informative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Ruduan Plug

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Cheng Li , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Vu Nguyen , Antonio Robles-Kelly , Svetha Venkatesh

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Bayesian interpretations of neural network have a long history, dating back to early work in the 1990's and have recently regained attention because of their desirable properties like uncertainty estimation, model robustness and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jack K Fitzsimons , Sebastian M Schmon , Stephen J Roberts

Catalytic prior distributions provide general, easy-to-use, and interpretable specifications of prior distributions for Bayesian analysis. They are particularly beneficial when the observed data are inadequate to stably estimate a complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-25 Dongming Huang , Feicheng Wang , Donald B. Rubin , S. C. Kou

Experiments in research on memory, language, and in other areas of cognitive science are increasingly being analyzed using Bayesian methods. This has been facilitated by the development of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Daniel J. Schad , Michael Betancourt , Shravan Vasishth

Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-14 Pedram Daee , Tomi Peltola , Marta Soare , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Mahdi MIlani Fard , Joelle Pineau , Csaba Szepesvari

Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Richard D. Riley

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-01 David C. Kessler , Peter D. Hoff , David B. Dunson

One goal in Bayesian machine learning is to encode prior knowledge into prior distributions, to model data efficiently. We consider prior knowledge from systems of linear partial differential equations together with their boundary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Markus Lange-Hegermann

Providing accurate predictions is challenging for machine learning algorithms when the number of features is larger than the number of samples in the data. Prior knowledge can improve machine learning models by indicating relevant variables…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-01-17 Luana Micallef , Iiris Sundin , Pekka Marttinen , Muhammad Ammad-ud-din , Tomi Peltola , Marta Soare , Giulio Jacucci , Samuel Kaski

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 F. Llorente , L. Martino , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , D. Delgado

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Gero Walter , Frank P. A. Coolen