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We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach…

Many of the best statistical classification algorithms are binary classifiers that can only distinguish between one of two classes. The number of possible ways of generalizing binary classification to multi-class increases exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Peter Mills

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Machine learning systems are often used in settings where individuals adapt their features to obtain a desired outcome. In such settings, strategic behavior leads to a sharp loss in model performance in deployment. In this work, we aim to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Yatong Chen , Jialu Wang , Yang Liu

When investigators seek to estimate causal effects, they often assume that selection into treatment is based only on observed covariates. Under this identification strategy, analysts must adjust for observed confounders. While basic…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-09 Luke Keele , Dylan Small

Preference-based global optimization algorithms minimize an unknown objective function only based on whether the function is better, worse, or similar for given pairs of candidate optimization vectors. Such optimization problems arise in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Mengjia Zhu , Dario Piga , Alberto Bemporad

Motivation: Gene selection has become a common task in most gene expression studies. The objective of such research is often to identify the smallest possible set of genes that can still achieve good predictive performance. The problem of…

It is well known that options can make planning more efficient, among their many benefits. Thus far, algorithms for autonomously discovering a set of useful options were heuristic. Naturally, a principled way of finding a set of useful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-01 Roy Fox , Michal Moshkovitz , Naftali Tishby

This article will devise data-driven, mathematical laws that generate optimal, statistical classification systems which achieve minimum error rates for data distributions with unchanging statistics. Thereby, I will design learning machines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Denise M. Reeves

Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Rachael V. Phillips , Mark J. van der Laan , Hana Lee , Susan Gruber

We reformulate explanation quality assessment as a ranking problem rather than a generation problem. Instead of optimizing models to produce a single "best" explanation token-by-token, we train reward models to discriminate among multiple…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Thomas Bailleux , Tanmoy Mukherjee , Emmanuel Lonca , Pierre Marquis , Zied Bouraoui

Many real-life optimization problems frequently contain one or more constraints or objectives for which there are no explicit formulas. If data is however available, these data can be used to learn the constraints. The benefits of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Adejuyigbe Fajemisin , Donato Maragno , Dick den Hertog

Most of the existing methods for anomaly detection use only positive data to learn the data distribution, thus they usually need a pre-defined threshold at the detection stage to determine whether a test instance is an outlier.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-19 Kai Tian , Shuigeng Zhou , Jianping Fan , Jihong Guan

In machine learning applications, predictive models are trained to serve future queries across the entire data distribution. Real-world data often demands excessively complex models to achieve competitive performance, however, sacrificing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Jizhou Huang , Brendan Juba

Decision-making in personalized medicine such as cancer therapy or critical care must often make choices for dosage combinations, i.e., multiple continuous treatments. Existing work for this task has modeled the effect of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

In the quest for unveiling novel categories at test time, we confront the inherent limitations of traditional supervised recognition models that are restricted by a predefined category set. While strides have been made in the realms of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-19 Sarah Rastegar , Hazel Doughty , Cees G. M. Snoek

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Arjun Chatterjee , Sayeed Sajjad Razin , John Wu , Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Jathurshan Pradeepkumar , Jimeng Sun

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

This paper considers an optimization problem for a dynamical system whose evolution depends on a collection of binary decision variables. We develop scalable approximation algorithms with provable suboptimality bounds to provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-31 Insoon Yang , Samuel A. Burden , Ram Rajagopal , S. Shankar Sastry , Claire J. Tomlin

This survey is focused on certain sequential decision-making problems that involve optimizing over probability functions. We discuss the relevance of these problems for learning and control. The survey is organized around a framework that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-13 Emiland Garrabe , Giovanni Russo